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An analyst has revealed that long term holders accumulated about 3.06 million BTC within three months, even as some older coins are being sold below their purchase price.

Bitcoin’s long term holder group continues to grow steadily. Data shared by Axel Adler Jr. shows that the Long Term Holder Realized Supply increased from 5.26 million BTC in January 2026 to 8.32 million BTC by April 16. This represents an addition of 3.06 million BTC over three months and a rise from 4.35 million BTC over the past year.

This metric reflects the amount of bitcoin that has remained unmoved for more than 155 days. Its growth is not only driven by new accumulation but also by existing coins becoming classified as long term holdings simply because they have not been spent.

Long Term Holder Supply Expands Rapidly

Over the last year, this supply has climbed from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC, pointing to a tightening of liquid supply as bitcoin consolidates around seventy six thousand dollars. However, this trend alone does not guarantee an upcoming price surge. Adler noted that any decline in Long Term Holder Realized Supply would suggest that older coins are being reintroduced into circulation, which would signal weakening market conditions.

For comparison, during the peak of the 2022 bear market in November, this metric reached 15.31 million BTC before falling as holders began spending their coins.

At the same time, the Long Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio on a seven day simple moving average has dropped below 1.0 and currently stands at 0.979. This marks the fifth consecutive day below that level since April 12, indicating that long term holders are selling at a loss. Similar dips below 1.0 have occurred repeatedly since February 2026, including a sharper decline to 0.798 between late March and early April that lasted a full week. A short recovery above 1.0 took place between April 5 and April 11 before the current decline resumed.

Adler clarified that this ratio only measures the profitability of coins that are actually spent by long term holders rather than the entire group. He also pointed out that the current pattern differs from deeper bear market conditions, such as in 2022 when the metric stayed below 1.0 for 231 days with a low of 0.45, or in 2018 to 2019 when it remained below that level for 292 days. According to him, the present situation reflects localized stress rather than full scale capitulation. The key factor to watch is whether the ratio holds above its March lows or drops further, especially if Realized Supply begins to decline.

Market Signals Point to a Cautious Balance

The combination of these indicators presents a market that is neither strongly bullish nor clearly bearish. The rise in Long Term Holder Realized Supply suggests continued expansion and reduced activity from older coins, which provides a supportive structural backdrop. At the same time, the recent drops in the profit ratio below 1.0 highlight short term pressure as some investors sell at a loss.

If the profit ratio quickly moves back above 1.0 while Realized Supply continues to grow, it would suggest that the current weakness is temporary. However, if the ratio remains below 1.0 for an extended period and losses continue alongside a decline in Realized Supply, it could signal a transition toward broader distribution of older coins and a more bearish market phase.

Separately, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index has fallen into the 0.2 to 0.3 range, which has historically indicated undervaluation. With bitcoin trading slightly above seventy six thousand dollars, this level, last observed in early 2023, points to a potential reset following a correction. The index combines several metrics, including MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed indicator, and suggests a phase of value accumulation with limited downside compared to long term upside potential.

Even so, the continued decline of the ninety day moving average indicates that selling pressure has not fully disappeared.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Several altcoins have recorded significant gains, with RAVE climbing into the top twenty by market capitalization after an extraordinary rally.

Bitcoin surged past seventy eight thousand dollars yesterday for the first time since early February, but failed to maintain that level and is now trading roughly two thousand dollars below its recent peak.

Altcoins also delivered notable gains during the same period, although many have given up those advances in the past six hours. In contrast, RAVE, SIREN, M, and DEXE continue to post strong double digit increases.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance at Seventy Eight Thousand Four Hundred

The leading cryptocurrency began the week with solid momentum, rising to nearly seventy five thousand dollars on Monday and reaching seventy six thousand dollars on Tuesday. This movement followed reports that the United States and Iran would resume negotiations aimed at ending the conflict permanently. Earlier, over the weekend, bitcoin had dropped to seventy thousand five hundred dollars after initial peace talks failed.

Market conditions remained unstable in the following days, with bitcoin trading between seventy three thousand three hundred dollars and seventy five thousand six hundred dollars, showing several sharp price swings within that range. Momentum returned on Friday after President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.

Bitcoin responded with a rapid surge above seventy seven thousand dollars and continued climbing to a ten week high of seventy eight thousand four hundred. However, after Iran rejected several of Trump’s statements, the price retraced by about two thousand dollars and now sits below seventy seven thousand.

Despite the pullback, bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown to more than one point five three trillion dollars, while its dominance over altcoins remains above fifty seven percent.

Altcoins Deliver Impressive Gains

RaveDAO’s token has extended its remarkable rally, gaining another forty percent in the past day and approaching twenty five dollars. Its performance over the past month has been extraordinary, rising by approximately nine thousand seven hundred percent and pushing it into the top twenty cryptocurrencies by market value.

Other strong performers include M, DEXE, and SIREN, all of which have recorded double digit increases. JUST and ENA have also posted gains of nearly ten percent.

Among the larger cryptocurrencies, Ethereum faced resistance near two thousand four hundred dollars, while XRP was unable to break above one dollar and fifty cents. BNB is trading around six hundred thirty five dollars, and both Solana and Dogecoin are slightly down.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by more than one hundred billion dollars at its peak, though it has since declined to just under two point seven trillion dollars.#crypto#cryptonewshttps://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Oil prices dropped sharply within minutes following the announcement, with USOIL falling by double digit percentages.

United States President Trump, together with Iran’s foreign minister, announced a significant easing of tensions, signaling that the Strait of Hormuz would finally reopen. This development had a strong effect across global financial markets, particularly on oil due to the strategic importance of the Strait.

USOIL experienced a steep decline of more than eleven percent. Before the announcement, it was trading at ninety dollars per barrel, but it quickly fell to below eighty dollars, reaching its lowest level in five weeks within minutes.

As seen in similar situations in the past, reports indicated that traders had already taken large positions shortly before the announcement became public. According to Reuters, investors placed short positions on oil worth seven hundred sixty million dollars just twenty minutes before the statement was released on Friday. Data from LSEG shows that between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT, traders sold a total of 7,900 lots of Brent crude futures.

At 12:45 GMT, Iran’s foreign minister posted on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait had been fully reopened for the remainder of the ceasefire period.

There have been several comparable incidents in recent years, particularly in relation to developments in the Middle East. In one example, an account was linked to multiple trades dating back to 2024, consistently achieving a perfect success rate by predicting Israel’s military actions in the region.

While oil prices dropped significantly, most other financial assets surged. Bitcoin reached a ten week high above seventy eight thousand dollars following the de escalation. However, this upward momentum may face risks after Iran disputed several of Trump’s additional claims.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Iran has stated that seven claims made by US President Donald Trump within a single hour were inaccurate.

The price of Bitcoin staged a strong recovery yesterday, climbing to a ten week high above 78 thousand dollars after Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been reopened.

That upward momentum is now under threat as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected several of the positive statements made by the US president.

Iran Pushes Back on Key Claims

Trump initially shared on social media that the Strait of Hormuz was open again and that both sides were making meaningful progress toward a lasting peace agreement. He later reinforced this message by saying the deal was nearly complete, that more discussions would take place over the weekend, and that Iran had agreed to stop its nuclear program indefinitely.

While Iranian officials first acknowledged the reopening, later remarks suggested a different stance. Ghalibaf explained that the strategic waterway would not remain open if US restrictions continued. He added that access would follow specific routes and require Iranian approval.

He emphasized that decisions about the strait would be determined by real conditions rather than social media statements. Ghalibaf also argued that multiple claims made by Trump in a short period were incorrect, describing them as part of an effort to shape public perception. He insisted that Iran would not be influenced by such tactics.

What This Could Mean for Bitcoin

Bitcoin responded quickly to Trump’s initial remarks, rising sharply toward 77 thousand dollars. As efforts to calm tensions appeared to continue, the cryptocurrency extended its gains and reached about 78 thousand 400 dollars for the first time since early February.

Prices later pulled back slightly and are now hovering just above 77 thousand dollars. Since the rally was largely driven by hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, any reversal in that narrative could slow or reverse the upward trend if Iran’s position holds.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to remain relatively steady over the weekend unless there is a major geopolitical development. Volatility often increases once traditional futures markets reopen late Sunday. While the current pullback is modest, the next two days could bring sharper price movements depending on how the situation unfolds.#crypto#cryptonewshttps://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A counterfeit Ledger wallet sold through an online marketplace has been uncovered with a concealed chip and modified firmware designed to capture seed phrases and PIN codes instantly.

A cybersecurity researcher in Brazil exposed the operation after purchasing what appeared to be a genuine Ledger hardware wallet from a Chinese marketplace listing that closely resembled the official store and matched its pricing. Although the packaging looked authentic at first glance, the device itself turned out to be fake.

When connected to Ledger Live downloaded from the official website, the wallet failed the Genuine Check, confirming it was not legitimate. This prompted the researcher to open the device and investigate its internal components and firmware.

Cloned Websites and Malicious Apps Drive the Attack

Inside the device, the researcher discovered a completely different chip than what is used in authentic wallets. The chip markings had been deliberately removed to conceal its identity. The hardware also included WiFi and Bluetooth antennas, which are not present in a genuine Ledger Nano S Plus. Further analysis revealed the chip to be an ESP32 S3 with built in flash memory, produced by Espressif Systems.

During startup, the device initially presented itself as a Ledger Nano S Plus with serial numbers and factory credentials, but later exposed its true origin. After extracting and analyzing the firmware, the researcher found that PIN codes and seed phrases were stored in plain text. The firmware also contained hardcoded links to external command servers, indicating that it was built to harvest sensitive wallet data and transmit it elsewhere.

Despite the presence of wireless hardware, there was no clear evidence that the device transmitted data through WiFi or Bluetooth. There were also no signs of USB based attack scripts. Instead, the scheme relied heavily on manipulating user behavior outside the device.

The attack begins when users scan a QR code included in the packaging. This directs them to a fake website designed to mimic the official Ledger site. From there, victims are encouraged to download a counterfeit version of Ledger Live for mobile or desktop platforms. The fraudulent app displays a fake Genuine Check that always succeeds, giving users a false sense of security.

Users then proceed to create wallets and record their seed phrases, unaware that the app is secretly sending this information to attacker controlled servers.

Further analysis of the Android version of the fake app revealed additional threats. Built using React Native and the Hermes engine, the application was signed with a debug certificate rather than a legitimate key. It intercepted communication between the wallet and the app, quietly contacted external servers, and continued running in the background even after being closed.

The app also requested access to location data and tracked wallet balances using public keys, allowing attackers to monitor incoming funds and transaction amounts.

Not a Security Failure of Ledger Itself

The researcher clarified that this incident does not represent a vulnerability in Ledger’s technology. Security features such as the Genuine Check and Secure Element functioned as intended. Instead, the situation is a sophisticated phishing campaign that combines fake hardware, malicious software, and external infrastructure.

The operation involves counterfeit devices equipped with ESP32 S3 chips, infected applications across multiple platforms, and remote servers used to collect stolen data.

While fake Ledger devices have been reported in the past, this case stands out because it reveals the entire system behind the scam, including hardware design, software manipulation, distribution channels, and links to shell companies behind marketplace listings. The findings have been reported to Ledger’s support team, and further technical analysis covering other operating systems is underway.

A similar incident occurred several years ago when another user reported receiving a Ledger Nano X in packaging that appeared genuine. However, a letter inside raised suspicion due to noticeable language errors and claimed the device was a replacement following a data breach. A later investigation showed the device had been modified with a flash drive connected to the USB interface, intended to deliver malware and potentially steal funds.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://coinsignals.net

A single unilateral freeze by Circle could have set off a chain reaction across decentralized exchanges, bridges, oracles and even wallets.

The criticism surrounding Circle has intensified after a 280 million dollar exploit on the Drift Protocol. A California based legal group has filed a class action lawsuit claiming the company failed to act while hackers linked to North Korea moved large amounts of stolen USDC through its bridge, making it responsible for investor losses.

Despite the backlash, an analyst argues that Circle’s decision not to intervene was not negligence but a necessary step to preserve the core principles that make USDC reliable for institutional users.

Why Freezing the Funds Could Have Been More Harmful

Responding to criticism aimed at Circle and its chief executive Jeremy Allaire, Lorenzo Valente explained that freezing the stolen funds without a legal order would have turned the stablecoin into something governed by arbitrary decisions. In his view, that would mean control based on preference rather than clear rules.

He noted that the incident was not a simple theft but a market or oracle exploit, which places it in a gray area that can include aggressive yet legal trading strategies. Allowing Circle to determine which actions cross the line could create a system without legal safeguards or avenues for appeal.

Valente also warned about wider consequences. If stablecoin issuers begin freezing funds based on their own judgment, that approach could spread across the ecosystem. Bridges might reverse transfers, decentralized exchanges could blacklist participants, wallets might block transactions and oracles could manipulate price feeds. He stressed that permissionless onchain finance is designed so that no single actor has that level of authority.

He further argued that due process is not a limitation but a key feature. Institutions rely on USDC because balances cannot be altered arbitrarily. A system that responds to public pressure could easily be influenced by any loud or coordinated group.

Another concern involves legal exposure. Stolen funds often move quickly, passing through multiple hands including innocent liquidity providers and market participants. Freezing assets too aggressively could harm individuals who had no connection to the original exploit, potentially opening companies like Circle to lawsuits from affected parties.

Valente also pointed out inconsistencies in public criticism. He referenced ZachXBT, who has previously criticized Circle for freezing wallets without clear explanations. Now, similar voices are demanding faster intervention. According to Valente, companies must either exercise broad discretion or strictly follow legal orders, but cannot be expected to do both.

The lawsuit, filed by Gibbs Mura, has been described as potentially precedent setting. Jacob Robinson warned that the claims could be dangerous, including accusations that Circle enabled hackers by allowing use of its Cross Chain Transfer Protocol and that it had a duty to act. While he doubts the case will succeed, he noted that a favorable ruling could impact anyone operating blockchain bridges.

Drift Shifts Strategy With Tether Partnership

As Circle addresses legal and public scrutiny, Drift Protocol is moving forward with a new plan. The platform has partnered with Tether in a deal worth nearly 150 million dollars, aiming to relaunch using USDT instead of USDC for settlements.

The recovery strategy includes a 100 million dollar credit facility tied to revenue, ecosystem grants and loans for market makers to help compensate affected users.

Earlier, Jeremy Allaire reaffirmed the company’s stance during an April 13 press conference in Seoul. He emphasized that Circle only acts when required by law and does not make discretionary judgments, even in situations where the ethical choice may appear straightforward.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

XRP received a notable boost in adoption as a new development within the Solana ecosystem was announced, coinciding with strong price rebounds for both XRP and SOL over the past day.

Shortly after a cryptic post on X featuring the XRP logo, Solana’s official channels confirmed the launch of a fully backed token that mirrors XRP on a one to one basis.

The new token, called wXRP, is issued through a collaboration with Hex Trust, which handles custody, and LayerZero, which provides bridging infrastructure.

This wrapped version of XRP is already verifiable on tokens.xyz and can be used across several Solana based decentralized finance platforms. These include Phantom, Jupiter Exchange, Titan Exchange, byreal_io, and Meteora.

The launch follows earlier plans by Hex Trust to expand XRP’s presence in decentralized finance across multiple blockchains, with Solana as the starting point.

The XRP community responded quickly, with John Squire describing the development as a major turning point.

The timing aligns with a broader market rebound driven by easing geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. XRP led gains on the day, rising above $1.50 for the first time in weeks, while Solana briefly moved past $90 before settling slightly lower.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A clear pattern has emerged in recent weeks. Reports of a ceasefire lead to price surges, followed by doubt, a slowdown, renewed optimism, and then the cycle begins again.

Efforts by Donald Trump to push for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, along with signs of possible diplomacy between the United States and Iran, have become one of the strongest drivers of market activity this April.

According to Santiment, traders have been treating every hint of de escalation as a buying opportunity. Each new headline has sparked short rallies, even when the underlying peace process appears uncertain.

A Cycle of Rumors and Market Reactions

Santiment’s latest report highlights that “ceasefire crypto rally” is among the most discussed topics across crypto social platforms. The pattern has become familiar. A ceasefire update appears, prices jump, skepticism follows, negotiations stall, and then fresh optimism restarts the cycle.

The conflict began on February 28 with a joint United States and Israeli strike on Iran, which disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This pushed oil prices higher and pressured global risk assets.

By mid April, traders shifted focus from waiting for a final resolution to pricing in the possibility that diplomacy could prevent further disruptions. Earlier in the month, when the United States announced a temporary halt in hostilities, Bitcoin rose from $68,000 to around $73,000. It later dropped to $70,500 after comments from JD Vance indicated that peace talks had failed. However, support held near $70,000, and renewed hopes of negotiations helped push Bitcoin back to $75,000.

Santiment noted that these movements are less about belief in the news and more about expectations of how other traders will react. Market behavior is being driven by anticipation rather than conviction.

Risks of Overconfidence in the Market

The firm also pointed out a recurring risk. Each time optimism rises and traders become more aggressive in buying on signs of easing tensions, a sudden escalation has followed, reversing gains.

Tracking social discussions shows a strong link between mentions of conflict ending and Bitcoin price increases. At the start of the week, as ceasefire rumors spread, positive terms like rally and recovery dominated conversations, while negative terms faded. Historically, this kind of one sided sentiment has often been followed by sharp pullbacks.

Santiment advises traders to stay aware of the environment. While diplomatic progress may continue to support the market in the short term, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the current optimism.

The overall trend remains reactive rather than stable, and rising confidence among traders has often marked the point where unexpected reversals occur.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization climbed to a multi month high above $2.7 trillion following major geopolitical developments.

After nearly seven weeks of conflict in the Middle East, the United States and Iran announced significant steps toward de escalation. These included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and progress in ongoing peace discussions. The news triggered immediate reactions across financial markets, with Bitcoin jumping to a ten week high above $78,000 while altcoins also rallied, leading to a wave of liquidations.

De Escalation Developments

The shift began when Donald Trump revealed that Iran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move later confirmed by Iranian officials.

He also stated that both countries would cooperate to remove mines from the strait and work together on handling Iran’s enriched uranium, which would be transferred to the United States. According to Trump, a long term peace agreement involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is close to completion, with further talks expected soon as most issues have already been resolved.

He further claimed that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and will not receive previously frozen funds from the United States.

Bitcoin Climbs to New High

Bitcoin responded quickly to the announcements, initially rising toward $77,000 before extending gains to reach about $78,400, its highest level since early February.

Although the price has slightly pulled back below $78,000, Bitcoin remains up around 5 percent on the day and over 7 percent higher compared to the same time last week. Major altcoins such as Ethereum and XRP also posted gains above 5 percent, helping push the overall market value past $2.7 trillion.

Data from CoinGlass shows that more than $810 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about $663 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid and was valued at nearly $16 million.

Meanwhile, oil markets moved in the opposite direction, with USOIL falling by 12 percent over the same period and dropping below $80 for the first time in five weeks.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

The past week has been dominated by a new breakout star in crypto, RAVE, which has captured massive attention with explosive gains.

Despite failed peace talks between the United States and Iran last weekend, optimism has returned as discussions continue, making it another highly active week for global markets and crypto.

Bitcoin had already gained momentum following the earlier ceasefire announcement, but the failed talks pushed its price down to $70,500 by the end of the weekend. At the start of the new week, renewed optimism triggered a strong rebound, sending Bitcoin close to $75,000 within about a day and a half. After briefly facing resistance, it broke higher and surged past $76,000 by Tuesday.

Selling pressure soon followed, dragging Bitcoin below $73,600 in a sharp pullback. However, the decline was short lived as prices quickly recovered to $75,600 after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

The rally continued into Friday, with Bitcoin climbing to nearly $77,000, marking its highest level in about ten weeks. Another boost came shortly after Trump shared on Truth Social that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has risen above $1.54 trillion, while its dominance over the broader crypto market has climbed past 57 percent.

Among major altcoins, Ethereum gained around 6 percent, XRP rose 8 percent, and Dogecoin added about 6.5 percent over the week. However, RAVE outperformed all, surging roughly 1,500 percent in just a week and nearly 7,000 percent over the past month.

On the downside, Zcash dropped more than 12 percent, with other declines seen in TAO, RAIN, and CC.

Overall market capitalization now stands around $2.68 trillion, with daily trading volume near $126 billion and Bitcoin maintaining dominance above 57 percent.

Key Developments This Week

Arthur Hayes analyzed how Bitcoin could perform under four possible outcomes of the Iran conflict, highlighting the ongoing influence of geopolitics on crypto markets.

Strategy made a major move by acquiring nearly 14,000 BTC, bringing its total holdings close to 781,000 coins.

BitMine Immersion Technologies expanded its Ethereum position to over 4.8 million tokens, now controlling more than 4 percent of the total supply.

Deutsche Börse purchased a $200 million stake in Kraken, valuing its parent company at $13.3 billion.

Bitcoin developers also proposed a new upgrade aimed at protecting older wallet addresses from potential future risks linked to quantum computing.

Meanwhile, traditional markets continue to outperform, with the S&P 500 reaching new record highs, while Bitcoin still trades more than 40 percent below its previous peak from last year.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic