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Small-scale Bitcoin investors are steadily disappearing, with retail inflows on Binance falling to their lowest levels since the exchange first launched.

The structure of the Bitcoin market has undergone major changes since 2017. Recent data shows that retail participation has declined to a nine year low on a major exchange, highlighting a significant absence of smaller investors.

This shift suggests that Bitcoin ownership may now be more concentrated than it was in earlier years.

Is Bitcoin Becoming More Centralized

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, retail activity is tracked by measuring inflows of less than one Bitcoin to Binance, a platform widely used by smaller investors and known for high trading volumes. The 30 day moving average of these inflows, typically linked to small holders, has dropped to just 332 BTC. This marks the lowest level recorded since 2017, the same year Binance was established.

Several reasons explain this decline. One major factor is that more retail investors are choosing to keep their Bitcoin on exchanges. As access to crypto platforms has expanded, buying and holding Bitcoin has become easier. Many investors now prefer third party custody, viewing it as safer than managing their own wallets despite past incidents like the FTX collapse. This behavior points toward increasing centralization of Bitcoin ownership.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has further accelerated this trend. In January 2024, monthly retail inflows to Binance averaged about 1,000 BTC, nearly three times higher than current levels. These ETFs provide exposure to Bitcoin price movements through regulated channels that many investors consider safer.

Some retail investors may also have left the crypto market entirely, shifting their funds into equities and commodities, which have delivered strong returns recently.

Another smaller factor is that some investors have accumulated more Bitcoin over time. As their holdings grow, they move into larger wallet categories and are no longer classified as retail participants.

Overall, Bitcoin’s evolution since 2017 has clearly reshaped the market, with retail investors adapting in ways that have reduced on chain activity compared to previous cycles.

Downside Risks Facing Bitcoin

Bitcoin recently came under pressure after comments from Donald Trump suggested that tensions involving Iran could escalate. This triggered a drop below 67,000 dollars as markets reacted to rising geopolitical uncertainty. Analyst XWIN Research noted that the decline reflects deeper structural weaknesses rather than just a short term reaction.

Concerns have also emerged in derivatives markets. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bitcoin futures open interest is heavily focused on short term contracts. This creates a reliance on leveraged positions instead of actual spot demand, increasing the risk of forced liquidations during periods of market stress.

Broader economic conditions are also working against Bitcoin. Rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and tightening liquidity have pushed investors away from riskier assets.

Three possible downside scenarios have been outlined. A moderate decline could see Bitcoin fall toward 50,000 dollars. A more severe drop could push prices into the 20,000 to 30,000 dollar range if ETF outflows continue. In an extreme scenario, escalating geopolitical conflict could drive Bitcoin down to as low as 10,000 dollars.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Transaction activity for XRP has dropped sharply on Binance, signaling weakening short term interest from traders.

Since the start of tensions in the Middle East, crypto markets have remained volatile in the short term but largely directionless overall. Major assets, including XRP, have mostly traded sideways during this period.

At the same time, XRP transaction activity on Binance has declined significantly, with both deposits and withdrawals falling to their lowest levels since 2025.

XRP Stagnation Intensifies

Over the past 30 days, XRP deposits were around 310500 transactions, while withdrawals reached approximately 329400. This resulted in a net outflow of about 18900 transactions, indicating that more funds are leaving the exchange than entering it.

According to analysis from CryptoQuant, this decline reflects ongoing net outflows but also highlights a broader drop in total transaction volume, pointing to a period of market stagnation.

Since mid 2025, activity has contracted sharply. Earlier in the year, combined deposit and withdrawal transactions often exceeded 6 million within a 30 day period. Now, volumes have stabilized at much lower levels and reached their weakest point since that earlier peak.

The data suggests that short term investor interest and speculative trading have both decreased, contributing to a quieter market environment. Lower activity levels are typically linked to reduced price volatility, as buying and selling pressures ease at the same time.

However, the continued pattern of withdrawals exceeding deposits may indicate that some users are moving assets off exchanges. This behavior is often associated with accumulation strategies or transfers to private wallets, especially during periods of low trading activity and limited market momentum.

Over the past week, XRP declined by nearly 3 percent but still managed to move ahead of BNB in market capitalization rankings. XRP reached a valuation of about 81.02 billion dollars, slightly above BNB at 80.1 billion dollars.

On the institutional side, spot XRP exchange traded funds recorded a modest daily inflow of 64610 dollars on April 2, based on data from SoSoValue. However, overall demand remained weak, with weekly outflows totaling 3.56 million dollars. This suggests that investor confidence is still limited as geopolitical tensions continue to reduce appetite for risk across global markets.

Ripple Prime Receives BBB Rating

Amid these conditions, Ripple has gained credibility among institutional investors through its brokerage division. Ratings agency KBRA recently assigned a BBB issuer rating to Ripple Prime.

The agency highlighted the company’s progress in clearing and intermediation services, particularly in derivatives trading and fixed income repo markets.

Since launching its exchange traded fund platform two years ago, Ripple Prime has significantly expanded its operations. Its repo segment achieved notable scale in 2025, while profitability was reached during the same year, supported by around 500 million dollars in capital from Ripple and continued balance sheet growth.

KBRA also pointed to Ripple’s strong financial position, including substantial cash reserves and large XRP holdings, as key factors behind the rating. The agency expects further margin expansion in 2026 as the business continues to mature.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Analysts warn that Bitcoin could fall as low as 10000 dollars if extreme geopolitical events unfold, such as a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz or a full scale regional war.

A recent speech by Donald Trump on tensions involving Iran triggered a sharp market reaction, sending Bitcoin from 69000 dollars to below 67000 dollars and wiping out gains from the previous session as investors adjusted expectations for a prolonged conflict.

According to a report from XWIN Research Japan, the decline was not just driven by headlines but also exposed deeper structural weaknesses in Bitcoin’s derivatives market that could lead to severe downside risk.

Impact of Trump’s Remarks on Markets

Markets had expected signals of de escalation, but Trump instead indicated that tensions could intensify over the next few weeks. Investors responded by selling risk assets.

Major stock indices such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined, while Asian markets also suffered losses, including a sharp drop in South Korea’s KOSPI index. Oil prices surged above 111 dollars per barrel, and the United States dollar strengthened.

XWIN explained that rising oil prices tend to increase inflation expectations, while a stronger dollar tightens global liquidity. Both factors typically reduce investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The report also highlighted rising market stress. The VIX climbed to around 25, and stress indicators in the United States bond market widened significantly, signaling weakening liquidity conditions that historically weigh on both equities and cryptocurrencies.

A key concern identified by analysts is the growing concentration of short term leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures. Open interest on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin futures has reached roughly 18000 to 20000 BTC, much of it in short duration contracts.

This suggests that price discovery is increasingly driven by leveraged trades rather than actual demand in spot markets. Under stress, these positions are more likely to be liquidated rather than rolled over, potentially triggering cascading sell pressure and amplifying price declines beyond what normal market activity would justify.

Bitcoin had already shown signs of weakness before the speech, barely avoiding a sixth consecutive monthly loss in March with a modest gain of 1.8 percent. However, the broader picture remains negative, with the first quarter of 2026 recording a 22.2 percent decline, marking its worst first quarter performance since the 2018 bear market.

How Severe Could the Decline Be

XWIN outlined three potential scenarios, all pointing toward lower prices.

In the mildest case, if current conditions persist without major escalation, Bitcoin could fall from around 70000 dollars to 50000 dollars, representing a decline of roughly 25 to 30 percent.

If Bitcoin exchange traded funds continue to experience outflows and buyers remain inactive, the price could drop further to between 20000 and 30000 dollars, implying a decline of 60 to 70 percent.

In the most extreme scenario, involving a complete disruption of the Strait of Hormuz or a full scale regional conflict, Bitcoin could fall to around 10000 dollars, which would represent a decline of approximately 80 percent from current levels.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Another week is ending, bringing a fresh round of crypto options expirations as spot markets continue to show weakness.

Approximately 27,600 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Friday, April 3, with a total notional value of about 1.8 billion dollars. This is a relatively small event compared to previous expiries, so its impact on spot markets is expected to be limited.

Crypto prices have largely moved sideways throughout the week, while total market capitalization dipped slightly on Friday.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s Bitcoin options have a put to call ratio of 0.54, indicating that more long positions than short positions are expiring. According to Coinglass, the max pain level is around 68000 dollars, which is close to current spot prices, meaning many positions could still end in profit at expiry.

Open interest, which represents the total value of outstanding options contracts, remains highest at the 60000 dollar strike price on Deribit, with around 1.5 billion dollars in bearish positions.

Following the end of the first quarter expiry event, total Bitcoin options open interest across exchanges has declined and now stands at approximately 31 billion dollars.

Deribit also noted that Bitcoin put options are priced higher than those of Ethereum across several timeframes, suggesting that traders are more concerned about potential downside risks for Bitcoin.

In addition to Bitcoin, about 157,000 Ethereum options contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of 322 million dollars. The max pain level for Ethereum is around 2100 dollars, with a put to call ratio of 0.73. Total Ethereum options open interest across exchanges is estimated at 6.3 billion dollars.

Altogether, the total value of crypto options expiring today is around 2.1 billion dollars, making this a relatively modest expiry event.

Spot Market Outlook

Total crypto market capitalization remained steady at around 2.37 trillion dollars during Friday morning trading in Asia. Markets had been attempting a recovery until Donald Trump signaled that military airstrikes in Iran could continue for another two to three weeks, which unsettled investors and triggered renewed selling.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above 67000 dollars late on Thursday but failed to maintain that level, slipping back to around 66600 dollars at the time of writing.

A CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost observed that the balance between supply in profit and loss is reaching levels typically seen in a bear market.

Ethereum has also struggled throughout the week, dropping to around 2000 dollars before recovering slightly to trade near 2050 dollars on Friday morning. The broader altcoin market continues to show signs consistent with bear market conditions.

Meanwhile, analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet formed new lows during the current geopolitical tensions, as the previous drop to 60000 dollars has not been revisited. He added that while the market declined independently between October and February, it has remained relatively stable during the ongoing conflict.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has strongly criticized Circle and its Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Allaire over what he described as a lack of response during the 280 million dollar exploit involving Drift Protocol.

He characterized the situation as a serious delay, noting that stolen funds were actively moved across multiple blockchain networks during the incident.

Circle Faces Criticism

In a post on X, ZachXBT claimed that Circle failed to act while millions of USD Coin were transferred from Solana to Ethereum during the exploit. He later revealed that the transfers occurred through approximately 100 transactions and stated that significant value was moved without any intervention.

He also referenced a recent case where more than 16 business wallets were frozen, describing Circle’s response as incompetent and accusing both the company and its CEO of harming the industry.

The criticism came as market observers debated whether quicker action could have reduced the scale of fund movement, especially since large volumes were reportedly transferred over several hours without disruption.

Meanwhile, Drift Protocol explained that the breach resulted from a highly coordinated and advanced attack rather than a weakness in its smart contracts. The team reported that the attacker gained unauthorized access through a new method involving durable nonces, which allowed previously signed transactions to be executed at a later time.

This approach enabled the attacker to avoid real time detection and quickly take control of administrative permissions linked to the protocol’s Security Council. Drift clarified that the incident did not involve compromised seed phrases or coding flaws. Instead, it stemmed from unauthorized or misleading approvals, likely obtained through social engineering tactics. The attacker secured the required two out of five multisignature approvals and carried out a malicious administrative transfer within minutes, later introducing a harmful asset and removing withdrawal limits.

Timeline of the Drift Exploit

According to Drift, the attack began as early as March 23 when durable nonce accounts were created and linked to both legitimate multisignature members and wallets controlled by the attacker. Additional preparations took place during a multisignature migration on March 27 and further nonce activity on March 30.

The final phase occurred on April 1, when the attacker triggered pre signed transactions shortly after a legitimate test transaction, allowing the exploit to unfold.

In response, Drift Protocol suspended remaining platform functions, removed the compromised wallet from its multisignature setup, and began working with security firms, exchanges, and law enforcement agencies to trace and potentially recover the stolen funds.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

The ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained above 52 for three consecutive months, although a confirmed altcoin season would likely require it to move beyond 55.

According to popular analyst Ash Crypto, the ALT to BTC chart has recorded four straight green MACD bars for the first time in nearly six years.

The last time this occurred, altcoins outperformed Bitcoin by about 60 percent over the following three months.

Three Signals Coming Together

In an April 2 post on X, Ash Crypto explained that in the years following the 2022 bear market, the ALT to BTC ratio remained largely negative and oversold. This reinforced the belief that altcoins had not fully recovered while Bitcoin continued to dominate.

However, the analyst now points to three key developments unfolding simultaneously, which could signal improving conditions for altcoins.

The first and most notable is the MACD indicator, which tracks momentum by comparing moving averages. The analyst observed that four consecutive green bars have now appeared on the monthly ALT to BTC chart. The last instance of this pattern was in August 2020, just before a strong rally in altcoins relative to Bitcoin, when capital shifted into smaller digital assets.

The second factor is the ISM Manufacturing PMI, an index that measures activity in the United States manufacturing sector. Readings above 55 have historically coincided with altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2021. Ash Crypto noted that the index has now stayed above 52 for three months in a row, a level last seen in October 2022.

The third factor is easing inflation in the United States. Consumer price index data has dropped to its lowest level in five years, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. This creates a more supportive environment for risk assets such as altcoins.

The analyst described the current setup as one of the most favorable macro environments for risk assets in years.

Not Yet a Full Altcoin Season

Despite these positive signals, Ash Crypto stopped short of declaring a full altcoin season. They noted that the ISM index would need to rise above 55, alongside broader liquidity expansion and a sustained decline in Bitcoin dominance, for a true altcoin cycle to take hold.

Instead, the analyst suggested the possibility of a meaningful recovery lasting two to three months, provided Bitcoin breaks above 76000 dollars and Ethereum climbs toward the 2800 to 3200 dollar range.

Shortly after sharing this outlook, Ash Crypto added that a major speech by Donald Trump regarding tensions in the Middle East had already complicated the situation. They noted that market analysis can quickly become irrelevant when unexpected geopolitical developments disrupt price trends.

Following Trump’s warning that the United States could take strong military action against Iran in the coming weeks, Bitcoin dropped below 67000 dollars while Ethereum fell under 2100 dollars. The broader crypto market also declined by more than 3 percent in total value, according to data from CoinGecko.

Meanwhile, data shared on March 30 by analyst Darkfost revealed that more than 40 percent of altcoins were trading at or near their all time lows, a situation worse than what was observed during the 2022 bear market.

In addition, XWIN Research Japan reported a bearish outlook for most major altcoins, including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and BNB. Data from CryptoRank showed that only seven tokens delivered positive returns in the first quarter of 2026, with TRON being the only top ten asset to end the period in positive territory.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A meaningful recovery signal would require the Short Term Holder SOPR to rise above 1.0 while Net Realized Profit and Loss turns positive at the same time.

Short term holders of Bitcoin are increasingly selling at a loss, as the seven day moving average of Net Realized Profit and Loss has fallen to negative 410 million dollars. This represents a 60 percent deterioration from last week’s figure of negative 256 million dollars.

At the same time, the Short Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, known as STH SOPR, has remained below the breakeven level for nine consecutive days. This metric shows whether recent buyers are selling above or below their purchase price, and current readings indicate continued loss taking.

What the Data Indicates

The Net Realized Profit and Loss metric measures total gains and losses from all Bitcoin transactions recorded on chain over a specific period. When the figure is negative, it means that total losses outweigh gains. Analysts rely on the seven day average to reduce daily fluctuations and better identify trends.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the trend is still worsening. The latest reading of negative 410 million dollars marks a significant drop from approximately negative 256 million dollars just one week earlier, representing a swing of 154 million dollars.

For context, the lowest point in the first quarter occurred on February 7 when the metric reached negative 1.99 billion dollars. While current levels are not as extreme, the renewed increase in losses signals growing pressure after a relatively stable period.

Adler also pointed out that STH SOPR has remained below 1.0 for nine straight days and currently stands at 0.9899. A reading below this level typically means that sellers, on average, are realizing losses.

Although this metric alone does not serve as a direct sell signal, extended periods below 1.0 have historically appeared before both short term market bottoms and further declines.

Analysts Caution About Further Declines

The continued loss selling among short term holders reflects weakening overall market sentiment.

A pseudonymous analyst known as Mr. Wall Street stated that he has adopted a fully bearish outlook across both short and medium term timeframes. He argued that Bitcoin’s previous rally from 60000 dollars to 76000 dollars likely served as a setup to build liquidity for a larger downward move. He also revealed that he has opened short positions targeting potential price levels between 40000 and 45000 dollars.

For those monitoring signs of recovery, Adler advised watching for STH SOPR to move back above 1.0 while Net Realized Profit and Loss simultaneously turns positive and remains there for a sustained period.

As of April 2, Bitcoin was trading near 66000 dollars, down about 30 percent from its January peak. The recent decline followed renewed geopolitical tension after Donald Trump indicated that military conflict with Iran would continue instead of easing.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States, has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust charter.

This development marks a significant step toward clearer regulation and reflects years of strict compliance efforts along with active engagement with regulators.

The approval does not mean Coinbase will become a traditional commercial bank. Instead, it introduces consistent federal oversight for the company’s existing custody and market infrastructure services.

The OCC charter is designed to protect customer assets, and Coinbase intends to use it to provide institutional level security and consistent regulatory standards for assets held on behalf of clients.

Greg Tusar, Co Chief Executive Officer of Coinbase Institutional, commented on the milestone, stating that the achievement represents progress not only for Coinbase but for the broader industry. He emphasized that innovation and accountability can coexist and added that the company looks forward to working closely with the OCC as it fulfills the conditions of approval while continuing to build a more effective financial system.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

More than 968 million dollars worth of Ethereum sell orders were recorded on Binance alone after Trump’s remarks triggered sharp market volatility.

Several crypto assets declined on Friday after a speech by Donald Trump unsettled global markets. Contrary to expectations of a more cautious tone, he outlined possible military action against Iran within the next two to three weeks.

Ethereum experienced significant selling pressure, particularly in the derivatives market.

Massive Derivatives Sell Off

According to analysis from CryptoQuant, Ethereum selling activity surged rapidly following Trump’s comments, which heightened tensions related to Iran.

Markets had anticipated a more calming message. Instead, Trump stated that Operation Epic Fury had delivered major results after one month, including weakening Iran’s military strength and reducing its missile capabilities. He added that objectives were nearing completion and warned that stronger attacks would continue over the coming weeks.

Traditional financial markets reacted immediately. United States Treasury bonds moved higher, while the S&P 500 lost roughly 500 billion dollars in market value within minutes.

The impact quickly spread to cryptocurrency markets, especially derivatives trading. CryptoQuant reported that Ethereum recorded more than one billion dollars in sell volume in derivatives markets within a single hour as short term bearish sentiment intensified. Around 968 million dollars of this activity took place on Binance, which handles the largest share of global crypto trading volume.

The surge in sell orders pushed Ethereum’s price down by more than 4 percent during the same period. The analytics firm noted that financial markets are entering a phase of extreme uncertainty and volatility, leading to increasingly unstable price movements.

Weakening Institutional Support

Spot Ethereum exchange traded funds recorded eight consecutive days of outflows as rising geopolitical tensions reduced investor confidence and appetite for risk. Although there was a brief recovery with inflows over the following two sessions, the rebound did not last. Institutional support weakened again, leading to fresh outflows. On April 1, spot Ethereum ETFs saw more than 7 million dollars in net withdrawals.

With both derivatives activity and institutional investment under pressure, analysts at Bitunix explained that the market has entered a new phase driven by supply chain disruption. They noted that energy, metals, and geopolitical factors are combining to push inflation expectations higher without supporting economic growth. This creates a mismatch between risk and asset pricing. Without clear policy direction or a defined path to resolving conflicts, asset prices are likely to continue being driven mainly by liquidity conditions and shifts in investor risk appetite.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

The total cryptocurrency market lost roughly 100 billion dollars in value during a sharp downturn, reflecting widespread selling across major assets.

Bitcoin faced rejection near 69,200 dollars yesterday and fell toward 66,000 dollars earlier today after renewed geopolitical concerns followed comments from Donald Trump about continued military action against Iran.

Bitcoin Declines by 3,000 Dollars

Bitcoin’s pullback began last week when it failed to break above 72,000 dollars and dropped to around 65,600 dollars by Friday. After losing more than 6,000 dollars within days, it stabilized above 66,000 dollars over the weekend.

The price briefly touched a monthly low near 65,000 dollars on Monday before buyers stepped in to prevent further declines. This support helped BTC recover, and despite volatility linked to mixed developments in the Middle East, it climbed back to 69,200 dollars.

However, expectations that tensions might ease were not met. Instead, Trump signaled a possible escalation, which triggered another drop in Bitcoin’s price to just above 66,000 dollars, wiping out about 3,000 dollars from its recent peak.

Although BTC has regained some ground, it remains below 67,000 dollars. Its market capitalization has fallen to around 1.335 trillion dollars, according to CoinGecko, while its dominance over the altcoin market stands above 56 percent.

XRP Moves Ahead of BNB

Altcoins have also suffered notable losses. Ethereum has dropped more than 3 percent and is trading near 2,050 dollars. Solana, HYPE, LINK, and AVAX declined between 5 and 6 percent, while Bitcoin Cash, ADA, and DOGE recorded losses of around 3 to 4 percent.

Despite falling close to 3 percent, XRP managed to surpass BNB in market capitalization rankings, marking a notable shift among top altcoins.

A few assets posted gains, though positive performers were limited. STABLE and ALGO stood out with increases exceeding 19 percent within a single day.

Overall, the total crypto market capitalization dropped sharply before recovering slightly to approximately 2.38 trillion dollars.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic