CoinSignals

South Korean authorities have arrested several suspects linked to a cryptocurrency investment scam that allegedly stole millions of dollars worth of XRP by posing as a legitimate FXRP investment platform.

The fraudulent scheme targeted XRP holders shortly after the launch of Flare Network’s FXRP token, luring investors with promises of high monthly returns before disappearing with their funds.

The investigation began after an overseas cryptocurrency exchange reported suspicious transactions. Within three days of receiving the alert, investigators tracked the movement of the assets and froze digital wallets containing a large portion of the stolen cryptocurrency.

How the Fraud Operated

According to investigators, the fake investment platform appeared soon after the launch of FXRP in October 2025.

The website promised investors monthly returns ranging from 1.5% to 1.8% while assuring them that their original deposits would remain safe.

To build credibility, the group created a sophisticated online presence that included fake reference websites, blog posts, news articles, and promotional videos designed to convince users the investment opportunity was genuine.

Victims were instructed to transfer their XRP through overseas cryptocurrency exchanges before sending the funds to designated wallet addresses. Authorities said this extra step helped make the transactions appear legitimate while making it more difficult to trace the organizers.

The platform remained online for just over one week before abruptly shutting down after collecting investor deposits.

During that brief period, 71 victims transferred approximately 3.4 million XRP, valued at around $8.6 million, into wallets controlled by the suspects.

Millions in Crypto Traced

Blockchain analysis later revealed that wallets linked to the operation processed digital assets worth approximately $19 million during the course of the scheme.

Authorities successfully froze about $12.1 million held on foreign cryptocurrency exchanges, though the remaining funds have yet to be recovered.

The confirmed losses averaged roughly $121,000 per victim, although individual losses varied widely. Police said at least one investor lost more than one billion won through the fraudulent platform.

The investigation ultimately led to multiple arrests in South Korea. Three men in their twenties and thirties were taken into custody, with two suspected ringleaders facing aggravated fraud charges.

Authorities also confirmed that another alleged organizer remains overseas and is currently the subject of an international alert.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Bitcoin and Ethereum outperformed most major asset classes in July, recovering strongly after a difficult first half of 2026. However, traders remain cautious as Bitcoin approaches August, a month that has consistently delivered losses in recent years.

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin gained more than 7%, while Ethereum climbed nearly 20%, making them two of the strongest performing major assets during the month.

Crypto Leads July Performance

According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum rose approximately 19.5% in July, while Bitcoin advanced 7.37%.

A separate comparison from analyst Ash Crypto showed that semiconductor stocks suffered the steepest decline, falling 22% during the same period. The Nasdaq 100 dropped around 9%, while the Russell 2000 declined about 3%.

The S&P 500 also finished lower, though its decline was relatively modest at roughly 1%.

Among commodities, silver lost 2.64%, while gold remained largely unchanged, posting a gain of just 0.38% over the month.

The strong July performance stands in sharp contrast to the difficult start both cryptocurrencies experienced in 2026.

Bitcoin fell more than 10% in January, extending a broader downtrend that began after its October 2025 peak. The decline continued in February with another loss of nearly 15%, before the market stabilized somewhat in March and April.

May ended with a decline of 3.41%, while June marked Bitcoin’s weakest month of the year as the cryptocurrency lost more than 20% of its value.

Ethereum also struggled during the first half of the year, recording losses of 21.26% in the first quarter and another 25.28% during the second quarter.

Bitcoin entered July trading near $58,000 before climbing steadily to a monthly high close to $67,000 last week. Ethereum followed a similar path, rising from roughly $1,500 at the beginning of the month to nearly $2,000 before momentum cooled.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was trading just above $1,900 after slipping about 1% over the past week. Despite its impressive monthly recovery, the asset remains more than 50% below its level from a year ago and approximately 61% beneath its August 2025 record high.

Bitcoin has also settled around $64,000 after absorbing the market volatility that followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

August Seasonality Raises Concerns

Although July delivered welcome gains, historical data suggests August has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months.

CoinGlass records show that Bitcoin has finished every August since 2022 with negative monthly returns. The cryptocurrency fell 6.49% in August 2025, 8.6% in 2024, 11.29% in 2023, and 13.88% in 2022.

The seasonal trend has left analysts divided over Bitcoin’s next move.

Ali Martinez believes the current bear market could continue until October, while traders Pepesso and Crypto Lens expect another decline before a broader recovery begins in 2027.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Aave is scaling back parts of its lending protocol by removing dozens of low usage assets and ending support for six blockchain deployments as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and reduce exposure to inactive markets.

In a July 30 post on X, founder Stani Kulechov said the changes affect approximately $98.1 million in supplied assets and $15.6 million in outstanding debt. The initiative also introduces two new internal governance frameworks aimed at preventing the protocol from maintaining markets with little user activity.

Aave Moves to Remove Inactive Markets

Kulechov announced that Aave will phase out 50 asset reserves with limited adoption across multiple markets. At the same time, the protocol will discontinue operations on Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium, and Aptos, impacting another 25 asset reserves.

The overhaul also includes retiring 21 Pendle PT tokens that have reached maturity, replacing them with newer maturity series.

According to implementation documents released with the proposal, risk management firm LlamaRisk and other Aave service providers recommended removing inactive Aave V3 reserves along with the six blockchain deployments.

The inactive reserves account for roughly $85.3 million in supplied assets and $11.5 million in outstanding debt, while the blockchain deployments scheduled for closure hold approximately $12.8 million in deposits and $4.1 million in debt.

On Ethereum, two Bitcoin liquid staking assets, FBTC and eBTC, represent the largest portion of the assets being removed. Combined deposits in the two tokens have fallen from about $72 million six months ago to roughly $16 million today.

Several bridged stablecoins are also being retired after users migrated to their native versions. Meanwhile, the MaticX token is being removed because its issuer, Stader, is discontinuing support for the asset.

LlamaRisk noted that each of the six blockchain deployments now generates less than $5,000 in quarterly revenue, making them too costly to maintain given ongoing oracle and monitoring expenses.

Activity on those networks has declined sharply over the past six months. Deposits on Sonic have dropped from $28.9 million to $7.6 million, while Scroll has seen deposits fall from $16.1 million to just $2.2 million.

To minimize disruption, Aave plans to phase out the affected markets gradually, allowing users sufficient time to withdraw funds or repay loans while reducing liquidation risks. Under the proposed process, each reserve will first be frozen before its supply and borrowing limits are reduced to one.

Oracle Infrastructure Also Under Review

The proposal extends beyond asset reserves to Aave’s price oracle infrastructure.

LlamaRisk recommended retiring several Chainlink price feeds associated with low activity assets across both Aave V2 and V3. According to the assessment, these assets have experienced significant declines in liquidity and trading volume, making accurate price reporting increasingly difficult.

The oracle changes would affect 10 protocol deployments representing approximately $6.76 million in supplied assets and $4.29 million in outstanding debt.

The latest restructuring follows several major developments for Aave this year.

In May, two of the protocol’s United Kingdom subsidiaries secured approval from the Financial Conduct Authority to operate cryptocurrency exchange and electronic money services.

A month later, Grayscale Research estimated AAVE’s fair value at around $175 over the next year, citing the protocol’s strong position in decentralized lending, its approximately 200,000 monthly active users, and its expansion into tokenized real world assets through its institutional lending platform, Horizon.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Bitcoin remained range bound near $64,500 as investors stayed cautious after the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish stance on interest rates. At the same time, ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran continued to weigh on broader market sentiment.

Against this backdrop, one important on chain metric tracking short term Bitcoin holders has dropped by 62% over the past nine months.

Short Term Holders Continue to Exit

Crypto analyst Darkfost said short term Bitcoin holders are still realizing substantial losses as market pressure persists.

According to his latest analysis, the realized capitalization of short term holders has fallen nearly 62% since reaching its peak in October 2025.

Darkfost explained that this decline reflects the typical behavior seen during market corrections. Investors who bought Bitcoin at higher prices continue to capitulate and sell, removing older UTXOs from circulation, while new buyers accumulate coins at lower prices and create fresh UTXOs. This naturally reduces the realized capitalization attributed to short term holders.

Historical data shows that previous bear markets saw this metric decline between 70% and 75%. While the current drawdown is approaching that range, it remains unclear whether Bitcoin will continue moving sideways or experience one final wave of selling before establishing a lasting bottom.

Earlier this week, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson suggested Bitcoin may be nearing an important accumulation phase based on separate on chain indicators.

He pointed to the ratio between Long Term Holder Realized Cap and Short Term Holder Realized Cap, which recently climbed to 3.9. In previous market cycles, readings above 4 have closely aligned with major Bitcoin bottoms.

According to Wedson, the growing concentration of realized capital among long term holders signals increasing investor conviction while short term participants continue leaving the market.

Long Term Outlook Remains Divided

Bitcoin’s long term trajectory continues to divide analysts.

Crypto analyst Sykodelic recently argued that the current bear market represents a mid cycle correction rather than the end of the broader bull market. Drawing comparisons with the 2011 to 2013 and 2019 to 2021 cycles, he projected Bitcoin could climb to between $380,000 and $450,000 beginning in March 2028.

His forecast is based primarily on the 200 week simple moving average multiplied by five along with a quantile 95 statistical model.

Not everyone agrees with that outlook, however. Several analysts have challenged both the projected timeline and the methodology behind the prediction.

Bitcoin ETFs Return to Positive Flows

Institutional demand showed signs of improvement on Wednesday as United States spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds recorded their first day of net inflows after four consecutive sessions of withdrawals.

The funds attracted more than $32 million in fresh capital, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which brought in nearly $90 million.

The overall inflows were partially offset by continued withdrawals from several competing products. Fidelity’s FBTC recorded approximately $43 million in outflows, while Ark 21Shares’ ARKB lost about $14.6 million, limiting the day’s net gains.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.nethttps://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Ethereum celebrated the 11th anniversary of its genesis block on July 30, capping off a year filled with major network upgrades, institutional adoption, and internal restructuring. Despite continued technological progress, its native token remains well below last year’s all-time high.

Today, Ethereum operates with a 60 million gas limit—double the capacity it had two years ago—while Layer-2 rollups now process roughly 95% of all network transactions.

On its anniversary, the blockchain was processing around 229 transactions per block, or nearly 21 transactions per second on the base layer, with network utilization at approximately 55%.

According to Etherscan data, the base fee hovered around 5.3 gwei, translating to transaction costs of roughly $0.20 for a standard ETH transfer, $0.52 for ERC-20 transfers, and about $3.79 for token swaps.

Scaling Advances and Institutional Adoption Continue

Ethereum’s scaling improvements have coincided with growing institutional interest.

Morgan Stanley recently launched the lowest-cost U.S. Ether exchange-traded product, charging a 0.14% expense ratio while staking between 50% and 80% of its ETH holdings and distributing staking rewards to investors.

BlackRock has also introduced staking within its spot Ethereum fund, making ETHB the firm’s first crypto investment product to generate staking rewards. Both offerings rely on Revenue Procedure 2025-31, which allows exchange-traded products to stake digital assets and distribute rewards without triggering separate tax consequences.

Looking ahead, Ethereum developers are preparing two major upgrades—Glamsterdam and Hegotá—scheduled for later this year.

The project’s 2026 roadmap focuses on three priorities: expanding network scalability, improving user experience, and strengthening the base protocol. Developers also aim to increase the gas limit beyond 100 million per block while incorporating post-quantum security considerations into future protocol development.

ETH Price Still Struggles

Despite the network’s technical progress, Ethereum’s price has endured a difficult year.

As of July 30, ETH was trading around $1,920, representing a 49% decline over the previous 12 months and leaving it approximately 61% below its all-time high of $4,946 reached in August 2025.

Ethereum’s market capitalization stood at roughly $231 billion across a circulating supply of 120.7 million ETH, maintaining its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin.

Ethereum Foundation Undergoes Major Leadership Changes

While the Ethereum ecosystem continued to expand, the Ethereum Foundation experienced significant organizational changes over the past year.

Approximately 54 employees—nearly one-fifth of the Foundation’s workforce—departed as the organization restructured into five core divisions focused on protocol development, accessibility, user experience, community and institutional engagement, as well as operations and management.

Longtime community member and investor Ryan Beckmans suggested the departures were largely driven by disagreements over strategic priorities rather than concerns about Ethereum’s long-term future.

Several prominent contributors, including Carl Beek, Julian Ma, Barnabé Monnot, Tim Beiko, Trent Van Epps, and Josh Stark, also left during the restructuring.

Leadership changes followed soon after. Tomas Stanczak stepped down as co-executive director in February, with Bastian Aue appointed interim co-executive director. The Foundation said Stanczak departed after making significant contributions to its mission and operations.

In June, Hsiao-Wei Wang also resigned as co-executive director and board member following her sabbatical. Her departure leaves Vitalik Buterin, Patrick Storchenegger, and Aya Miyaguchi as the remaining members of the Foundation’s board.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Bitcoin has settled near the $64,000 mark after a volatile stretch surrounding the latest Federal Reserve meeting, while Pi Network continued its strong recovery and Talus (US) surged into the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged matched market expectations, helping calm price swings across the crypto market. Although most large-cap altcoins traded slightly lower over the past 24 hours, Uniswap (UNI) posted solid gains, while HYPE led the losses.

Bitcoin Holds Above $64K After Volatile Week

Bitcoin started last week with a strong rally, climbing from below $64,000 to a monthly high of $67,000. However, the move stalled as buyers failed to overcome heavy resistance, sending the asset back toward $64,600 before slipping another $1,000 later in the week.

Despite the pullback, bulls defended the $64,000 area throughout the weekend. Bitcoin briefly rose to around $64,500 on Sunday and extended gains by another $1,000 on Monday as investors reacted positively to reports of easing tensions in the Middle East.

The recovery proved short-lived. Sellers quickly regained control, pushing Bitcoin below $62,800 on Tuesday as traders reduced risk ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Following the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, Bitcoin experienced another round of volatility, briefly climbing to $64,600 before falling to approximately $63,200.

Since then, the cryptocurrency has traded within that range and is currently hovering just below $64,000. Its market capitalization has eased to around $1.28 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market dominance has slipped to 56.3%.

Pi Network and Talus Lead Altcoin Gains

Among the strongest performers, Pi Network’s native token continued its recent rebound. After gaining another 6% over the past day, PI reclaimed the $0.08 level, which now appears to be acting as support. The latest rally followed the project’s announcement regarding the timeline for its next protocol upgrade.

Talus (US) delivered an even stronger performance, jumping 20% in the past 24 hours and an impressive 600% over the past month. The surge pushed the token into the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Elsewhere, larger-cap altcoins saw more modest moves. Uniswap (UNI) and BEAT gained between 4% and 5%, while HYPE fell about 3% to trade below $54.

Dogecoin declined by more than 1%, and Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and RAIN also posted slight losses of up to 1% as the broader altcoin market remained relatively subdued.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles may be influenced by the U.S. election calendar, with historical data suggesting the cryptocurrency tends to recover after midterm elections, according to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.

In a July 30 post on X, Wedson argued that Bitcoin has repeatedly entered bear markets in the year leading up to U.S. midterm elections before launching into sustained bull markets once the political uncertainty surrounding the vote subsides.

Historical Election Trends Stand Out

After comparing Bitcoin’s price action with previous U.S. election cycles, Wedson identified what he believes is a recurring pattern.

His analysis suggests Bitcoin typically falls into a bear market roughly one year before midterm elections, with market bottoms forming either shortly before or soon after voters cast their ballots. From there, the cryptocurrency has historically transitioned into a longer-term uptrend.

Presidential election years appear to tell a different story. According to Wedson, Bitcoin has consistently rallied following presidential victories before eventually reaching a major cycle peak not long after the new president takes office.

“Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” the analyst wrote.

He also pointed to XRP as another example, noting that the token began a strong rally immediately after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and reached a local high on January 20, 2025, the day of his inauguration.

Wedson’s findings echo conclusions from an earlier Binance Research report, which also observed that Bitcoin has historically underperformed during U.S. midterm election years before recovering once political uncertainty eased.

According to that report, Bitcoin has declined by an average of about 56% during completed midterm election cycles since 2014, followed by average gains of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.

Recovery Alone Doesn’t Confirm a New Bull Market

Wedson has previously cautioned investors against assuming that rising prices automatically signal the start of a new bull cycle.

He argued that a genuine market bottom requires more than a rebound in price. In his view, investors should also see evidence of widespread capitulation, reduced leverage across the market, and fresh capital entering through short-term holders before concluding that a lasting trend reversal has occurred.

Macro Environment Remains a Key Variable

With roughly three months remaining until Americans head to the polls, Bitcoin is trading around $64,000—nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has slipped around 2.5%, according to CoinGecko data, though it remains nearly 8% higher over the last month.

Bitcoin has also held up relatively well following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Whether historical election patterns play out again may ultimately depend on broader macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment in the months ahead.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A widely followed crypto analyst believes Bitcoin has completed a long-term technical formation that could pave the way for a rally to at least $220,000.

Vivek Sen told his more than 270,000 followers on X that Bitcoin has successfully confirmed a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern after breaking above resistance and retesting the breakout level.

According to Sen, the setup has been years in the making and now signals the beginning of a much larger move.

“These breakouts don’t typically produce 20% gains—they often lead to moves of several hundred percent,” he said, adding that $220,000 is the minimum price target.

Historic Pattern Has Previously Preceded Major Bitcoin Rallies

The cup-and-handle is one of the best-known bullish continuation patterns in technical analysis. It forms a rounded “cup” followed by a shorter consolidation, or “handle,” before breaking above resistance. The projected price target is generally calculated by adding the depth of the cup to the breakout point.

Bitcoin has produced similar formations in previous market cycles.

During the 2020-2021 bull market, the asset formed a multi-month cup after falling from its 2019 highs into the 2020 market low. A consolidation phase during the summer of 2020 completed the handle before Bitcoin surged to its then-record high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Another large rounded bottom developed throughout 2022 and 2023 as institutional accumulation increased. By early 2024, Bitcoin traded sideways between roughly $60,000 and $69,000, forming another handle before eventually breaking above $100,000.

Some analysts, however, believe the broader cycle has not yet fully played out, with October still viewed by many as a potential market bottom and turning point.

Risk Indicators Paint a Mixed Picture

Market intelligence platform Swissblock recently reported that Bitcoin’s Risk Index peaked in late June before falling into a low-risk zone, helping reduce selling pressure and stabilize prices.

At the same time, analysts noted a growing divergence between Bitcoin’s improving risk profile and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as Wall Street’s “fear index.”

A rising VIX typically reflects growing uncertainty in traditional financial markets and can weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, a lower and more stable VIX generally supports investor appetite for higher-risk investments.

Swissblock cautioned that if the VIX continues climbing while Bitcoin’s Risk Index also begins to rise again, market conditions could deteriorate.

Sen’s $220,000 forecast follows another high-profile prediction released this week that projected Bitcoin could reach as much as $450,000 by March 2028.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Following Fed Decision

Bitcoin traded in a volatile range over the past 24 hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The cryptocurrency briefly tested the $64,500 level three separate times before retreating to the upper-$63,000 range during Thursday’s Asian trading session.

Geopolitical tensions also remain on investors’ radar after the United States resumed military strikes on Iran late Wednesday. U.S. Central Command described the operation as a response to what it called recent attempted Iranian attacks on American forces stationed in the Middle East, adding another layer of uncertainty for global financial markets.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg has disclosed plans to sell his entire personal stake in the Grayscale XRP Trust ETF, according to a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

On July 28, Mintzberg submitted a Form 144 seeking approval to sell 2,611 GXRP shares that he purchased directly from the trust in a private transaction in October 2024.

The filing values the proposed sale at approximately $53,395, based on a share price of $20.45, with Cantor Fitzgerald set to execute the transaction on NYSE Arca. Form 144 filings indicate an intent to sell and do not confirm that the shares have actually been sold.

Third Grayscale Executive to File GXRP Sale Notice

Mintzberg became Grayscale’s CEO on August 15, 2024, after joining from Goldman Sachs. Roughly seven weeks later, he acquired the GXRP shares through a privately negotiated cash purchase while the trust was still available only to accredited investors.

By September 2025, the trust had grown to nearly $17 million in assets across 301,500 shares.

Mintzberg is the third Grayscale insider to disclose plans involving GXRP shares this year.

In January, Digital Currency Group founder Barry Silbert, listed as a 10% shareholder, filed to sell 9,158 shares valued at about $336,373 through a Roth IRA using Capital Institutional Services. Around the same time, Grayscale Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm disclosed plans to sell 7,123 shares worth roughly $266,970 through Canaccord Genuity.

While Silbert’s filing identified OTCQX as the trading venue, both Salm and Mintzberg listed NYSE Arca.

All three executives accumulated their holdings during the same seven-week period in late 2024. Silbert purchased 4,407 shares on September 14 and another 4,751 on October 4. Salm acquired 2,319 shares on October 8 before adding 4,804 more on October 31.

The earlier January filings implied share prices between $36.73 and $37.48, compared with the $20.45 valuation in Mintzberg’s latest filing, representing a decline of roughly 44% over six months.

Outstanding Shares Shrink as XRP ETF Market Evolves

The trust’s outstanding share count has also dropped significantly. January filings listed approximately 5.79 million shares outstanding, while Mintzberg’s July filing shows just 2.84 million shares, a reduction of nearly 2.95 million shares, or about 51%.

At the current filing price, the trust is valued at roughly $58 million. That remains well below the largest spot XRP ETF products, with Bitwise’s fund approaching $500 million in assets and Canary’s XPC managing nearly $470 million.

Grayscale listed GXRP on NYSE Arca on November 24, 2025, eleven days after the first U.S. spot XRP ETF began trading on Nasdaq.

Despite total inflows nearing $1.5 billion since launch across U.S. spot XRP ETFs, investor activity has slowed recently. Seven of the ten trading days leading up to July 19 recorded zero net inflows across the sector.

As of July 30, XRP was trading around $1.07, approximately 70.5% below its all-time high of $3.65 reached on July 17, 2025.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.nethttps://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A crypto analyst believes Bitcoin’s current downturn is only a temporary pause in a much larger bull cycle, forecasting the asset could climb as high as $450,000 by early 2028. The bold prediction has triggered intense debate, with critics arguing it conflicts with Bitcoin’s historical market cycles.

Analyst Sees Current Decline as Mid-Cycle Correction

In a July 29 preview of his newsletter shared on X, crypto analyst Sykodelic argued that Bitcoin has not yet reached the end of its long-term bull market. Instead, he described the ongoing bear market as a mid-cycle correction similar to those seen between 2011 and 2013 and again from 2019 to 2021.

Based on that outlook, he expects Bitcoin to trade between $380,000 and $450,000 beginning in March 2028.

His projection relies on two key indicators: the 200-week simple moving average multiplied by five and a 95th-percentile statistical model, which is already approaching $330,000.

According to Sykodelic, every major Bitcoin cycle peak has reached the 200-week SMA multiplied by five, a level that currently sits around $320,000 and continues to rise as Bitcoin’s price increases.

He also argued that a move from Bitcoin’s current price to $380,000 would represent only a 5.5-fold gain, far smaller than the roughly 23-fold rally from around $3,000 to nearly $69,000 during the 2020-2021 bull market. In his view, such appreciation is not only achievable but increasingly likely.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $64,000 after a modest rebound. Recent weakness has been attributed to investor caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, broader market uncertainty, and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Critics Question the Forecast

The prediction quickly drew skepticism from market observers.

An X user known as Bitcoin Daily, who identified as a data scientist, argued that applying Sykodelic’s own 890-day cycle model backward from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak points to spring 2023 as the cycle midpoint. If that calculation is correct, October 2025 would represent the cycle top rather than the middle of the bull market.

The critic also noted that Sykodelic omitted the 2015-2017 cycle from his analysis and compared two rallies that occurred under very different market conditions. One followed a full cycle peak that ended with an 89% decline, while the other represented a bear market rally that later fell about 55%.

Historical timing also became a key point of contention. According to Bitcoin Daily, the last three Bitcoin cycle peaks occurred 525, 546, and 534 days after their respective halving events. By contrast, Sykodelic’s projected March 2028 peak would arrive roughly 38 days before the next halving, something that has never happened in Bitcoin’s history.

The analyst also argued that applying the same 890-day calculation to several other local highs since June 2024 produces possible peak dates ranging from May 2027 to October 2028. He said the wide 17-month range suggests the March 2028 target was selected rather than derived from the model.

Sykodelic rejected those criticisms, questioning the idea that spring 2023 could reasonably qualify as a mid-cycle high only months after Bitcoin’s November 2022 bear market bottom. He also explained that he excluded the 2013-2019 period because, in his view, that cycle did not experience a meaningful mid-cycle correction.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic