CoinSignals

Bitcoin is trading close to the 70000 dollar level, and on chain data shows a growing divide between retail traders selling their holdings and long term investors who remain largely inactive.

Analysts say this contrasting behavior could eventually create conditions that tighten the available supply of Bitcoin in the market.

Exchange Reserves Decline as Retail Traders Sell

According to crypto analyst GugaOnChain, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year. The total amount held on exchanges dropped by roughly 204000 BTC, declining from about 2.99 million to 2.786 million BTC.

This trend suggests that fewer coins are available on exchanges for selling, even as short term holders continue to offload their assets.

The analyst also pointed to a metric known as the Short Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which measures whether recent buyers are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. The current reading of this indicator stands at 0.97.

A value below 1.0 means that investors are selling at a loss. According to GugaOnChain, this behavior likely reflects panic selling rather than a strategic move.

At the same time, large long term holders often referred to as whales have remained inactive. Older coins that are mostly sitting on significant unrealized gains have not been moved. The analyst said the current selling pressure appears to be driven mainly by emotion, particularly from newer investors who bought Bitcoin at higher prices and are now cutting their losses.

Cost Basis Pressure for Newer Whales

Another analysis from CryptoQuant contributor burakkesmeci highlighted an additional data point.

According to their research, Bitcoin whales who have held the asset for less than 155 days currently have an average cost basis of around 85600 dollars. With Bitcoin trading well below that level, these newer large investors are currently holding positions at a loss.

The analyst explained that past Bitcoin market cycles show a consistent pattern. Bull markets tend to resume only after the price climbs back above and maintains levels higher than the cost basis of these short term whales.

They noted that the price briefly tested this level in January but failed to break above it. Instead, it acted as resistance and pushed Bitcoin back toward the 60000 dollar range.

Market Volatility Adds More Questions

Over the weekend, the market experienced an unexpected test when oil prices rose sharply. Despite the surge, Bitcoin managed to hold above 70000 dollars.

Tom Lee of Fundstrat suggested that this resilience could indicate that Bitcoin is regaining attention as a potential store of value.

That idea was briefly tested again when Donald Trump, the President of the United States, posted on social media claiming that there was nothing left to target in Iran. Within minutes of the statement, Bitcoin surged by nearly 2000 dollars, rising to around 71200 dollars before pulling back.

According to market data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has fallen about 3.7 percent over the past seven days. This performance is weaker than the broader cryptocurrency market, which declined by roughly 1.7 percent during the same period.

Over a one year period, Bitcoin’s return currently stands at negative 15 percent, and the asset remains nearly 45 percent below its all time high. #crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Arthur Hayes has highlighted how Bitcoin has performed better than both Gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the conflict between the United States and Iran began on February 28.

According to data he shared on X on March 12, Bitcoin has climbed about 7 percent since the conflict started. During the same period, gold declined by roughly 2 percent while the Nasdaq 100 slipped by around 0.5 percent.

Bitcoin Remains Resilient as Other Assets Struggle

Hayes posted a normalized performance chart comparing Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 beginning on February 28. Each asset started from the same baseline, making it easier to compare how they performed over the following two weeks.

The chart showed Bitcoin standing out compared with the traditional safe haven asset and the major technology stock index. The cryptocurrency rose by about 7 percent during a period when energy prices were rising amid concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Even so, Bitcoin’s price movement during that time was not completely stable. When news first emerged about military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, Bitcoin dropped from around 66000 dollars to slightly above 63000 dollars. It later rebounded to about 67000 dollars following reports of the death of Ali Khamenei.

Analysts at London Crypto Club supported Hayes’ view and said they had observed a similar pattern when the Israel Palestine conflict escalated. They explained that Bitcoin can react to extreme scenarios on both ends of the risk spectrum while often trading alongside equities during more stable periods.

At present, Bitcoin is trading near 70000 dollars, with its price fluctuating between about 69000 and 71000 dollars over the past twenty four hours, according to data from CoinGecko. The asset has gained less than 2 percent during the day. Over the past week, however, Bitcoin remains down about 3.5 percent, though its current value is roughly 2 percent higher than its level thirty days ago.

Supply Tightening on Exchanges

Looking at broader market data, analysts at Arab Chain reported that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index recently reached its highest level since October 2025 at 5.10.

This metric measures how much Bitcoin is readily available for sale on Binance. The higher reading suggests that supply on the exchange has decreased. Historically, such conditions have appeared during bullish market phases when investors move their Bitcoin into cold storage rather than keeping it on trading platforms.

Hayes Is Still Watching the Federal Reserve

Despite Bitcoin’s relative strength, Hayes said he is not currently buying the asset. In a recent interview, the former BitMEX chief explained that he is cautious about investing at the moment.

He warned that if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues for an extended period, it could trigger a broader sell off in equity markets that might push Bitcoin down toward 60000 dollars.

Meanwhile, Mike McGlone, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offered a different outlook. He suggested that oil prices could approach 120 dollars, Bitcoin might climb toward 90000 dollars, copper could rise to around 6 dollars per pound, and silver might reach close to 100 dollars per ounce. Such moves could mark a peak for risk assets in the first quarter of 2026, with increasing volatility potentially spilling over into global equity markets. #crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Bitcoin’s long term holder supply remains close to historic highs even after a recent decline from its peak. Indicators that typically signal overheating in the market are still relatively moderate compared with previous market cycle peaks.

As of March 11, 2026, Bitcoin’s long term holder realized supply stood at about 8.05 million BTC. This represents a decline of roughly 5.5 percent from the cycle peak of 8,529,671 BTC recorded on March 8, 2026, when Bitcoin was trading at 65,974 dollars and the metric’s Z score reached 3.20.

By the time of the latest reading, the Z score had eased to 2.66.

A More Compressed Market Cycle

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., the recent pullback has not significantly changed the broader picture. The amount of Bitcoin held by long term holders at this stage of the cycle remains historically elevated.

When compared with previous cycles at the same stage after the halving, which is day 691 after the event, the current cycle shows significantly larger holdings.

Data indicates that the total amount of coins held by long term holders is about 1.52 times higher than during the 2020 cycle and approximately 3.4 times higher than in the 2016 cycle at comparable points.

Adler explained that the current Z score of 2.66 is very close to the 2016 cycle reading of 2.94 at the same stage. During the 2016 halving cycle, this period marked the early phase of the final redistribution stage. That phase continued for roughly another 200 days before the metric reached its all time high in December 2018.

The 2020 cycle followed a different pattern. At day 691 after the halving in that cycle, the Z score was only 1.08. This reflected the end of the bear market following the collapse of Terra and LUNA, and the long term holder realized supply had already been declining for about eight months from its peak.

Adler also reviewed the MA365 ratio, which currently stands at 1.595 in the present cycle. This level is lower than the equivalent reading in the 2016 cycle, which reached 2.523, and slightly higher than the 2020 cycle level of 1.502. According to the analyst, this suggests that the degree of market overheating relative to the one year moving average remains moderate.

Historically, the final peaks of long term holder realized supply have occurred between days 880 and 912 after a halving event. This is roughly 190 to 220 days later than the current stage in the cycle. In those earlier cycles, the Z score eventually rose to between 4.24 and 4.94 before reaching its peak. If the current cycle follows a similar timeline, the recent peak could represent only an intermediate high rather than the final one.

Accumulation Momentum Slows

Adler also noted that the current cycle differs structurally from earlier ones because institutional inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds have absorbed large quantities of coins. This has reduced the amount of supply available for active trading and may be accelerating the accumulation process among long term holders.

At the same time, the pace of accumulation appears to be slowing. The 30 day rate of change currently stands at about 7.6 percent. This is far below the levels observed during similar phases in previous cycles when the metric increased by as much as 87 percent in 2016 and 51.6 percent in 2020.

According to the analyst, this slower growth rate may indicate that the market is entering a stabilization phase following the strong accumulation period seen in January and February 2026. #crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Nearly two years after the launch of traditional exchange traded funds that track the performance of the largest altcoin, the world’s biggest asset manager is introducing a new staking based product.

BlackRock is launching the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF, which will trade on Nasdaq under the ticker ETHB starting today.

The new fund will hold spot Ethereum and stake a portion of its assets under management in order to generate additional income from staking rewards.

According to reports, ETHB will become BlackRock’s first cryptocurrency investment product that combines direct spot exposure to a digital asset with rewards generated through staking.

Expanding BlackRock’s Crypto ETF Lineup

With this launch, BlackRock will now offer three spot cryptocurrency ETFs. The firm previously introduced the iShares Bitcoin Trust, which trades under the ticker IBIT, in January 2024. About six months later, it launched the iShares Ethereum Trust under the ticker ETHA.

Both funds have become leaders in their respective markets. IBIT currently manages more than 55 billion dollars in assets, while ETHA holds around 6.5 billion dollars.

The new ETHB fund will stake a portion of its ether holdings on the Ethereum network. This approach allows the fund to potentially earn additional returns through staking rewards while still reflecting the market price of Ethereum.

Providing More Choices for Investors

Jay Jacobs, the United States head of equity ETFs at BlackRock, explained that the launch is focused on giving investors more options.

He noted that while ETHA has already developed strong liquidity and an expanding derivatives market, some investors are looking for ways to maximize their overall returns by combining exposure to ether’s price with the rewards generated through staking.

Following the transition of Ethereum from proof of work to proof of stake, the network now allows holders to lock up their ether to help validate transactions and secure the blockchain. In return, participants receive rewards similar to yield in traditional financial markets.

Jacobs also pointed out that some investors who already hold ETH directly have been staking their assets and were hesitant to switch to an ETF because they would lose access to those rewards. The new ETHB structure is designed to solve that issue by allowing investors to retain the benefits of staking while also gaining the operational advantages that come with an ETF.

Ethereum ETF Market Growth

Since their introduction in July 2024, Ethereum exchange traded funds have attracted more than 11.6 billion dollars in cumulative net inflows. However, this total is lower than the all time high recorded in early October 2025 when inflows exceeded 15 billion dollars.#crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Historical data suggests that financial markets often experience heightened volatility during United States midterm election years, and Bitcoin has frequently followed a similar pattern.

A report by Binance Research found that Bitcoin has fallen by an average of about 56 percent during midterm election years. During these periods, the cryptocurrency has tended to move closely alongside declines in United States equity markets.

The analysis also noted that midterm election years have historically been among the weakest periods within the four year United States presidential cycle. According to the report, the S&P 500 has experienced average peak to trough declines of around 16 percent during these years.

Political uncertainty surrounding elections often weakens investor confidence and creates market instability. In fact, in seven out of the last ten midterm election cycles, equity markets experienced corrections of more than 10 percent as political risks influenced investor behavior.

Political Uncertainty Impacts Both Equities and Crypto

Digital assets have shown a similar pattern during these periods. The report explains that Bitcoin has historically moved in strong correlation with equities during midterm cycles.

Since 2014, which the study considers the first meaningful election cycle for the crypto market because earlier periods had limited liquidity, Bitcoin has recorded an average decline of about 56 percent during midterm years across the three completed cycles.

Despite these short term declines, the research highlights a consistent pattern of strong market performance once the political uncertainty surrounding elections fades.

Data cited in the report shows that the twelve months following United States midterm elections have produced positive returns for the S&P 500 in every instance since 1939. Over that long period, the index has generated an average gain of about 19 percent in the year after the election.

Bitcoin has also shown a strong recovery pattern. In each of the three post midterm years on record, the cryptocurrency delivered gains with an average return of roughly 54 percent.

These findings suggest that markets often rebound after election results become clear and investors gain a better understanding of the political and policy environment. The report describes this trend as a recurring cycle in which volatility during election years is followed by stronger performance for risk assets as uncertainty gradually disappears and capital flows back into the market.

Global Market Pressures Add to Volatility

The analysis arrives at a time when global markets are already experiencing significant turbulence driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic challenges.

Rising tensions in the Middle East have contributed to market instability. Disruptions connected to the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about potential supply shocks in global energy markets, which has led to sharp fluctuations in oil prices.

The Next Major Market Catalyst

Investors are also closely watching upcoming United States inflation indicators that could influence future monetary policy decisions. Key data releases include the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures report.

According to Binance Research, current market conditions are also shaped by elevated leverage among investors and negative gamma positioning among market makers in both equity and cryptocurrency markets. These dynamics can intensify price movements when markets respond to geopolitical or economic developments.

Although short term risks remain, history suggests that periods marked by political and macroeconomic uncertainty are often followed by stronger market performance once major sources of uncertainty are resolved. #crypto #cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

An important technical indicator used to evaluate Bitcoin’s valuation has dropped to its lowest point since the 2022 bear market.

Data from Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value metric shows that the asset may currently be undervalued compared with its historical baseline. According to Santiment, the 365 day MVRV has reached the same level seen in late 2022 shortly after the collapse of FTX.

During the previous instance when the 365 day MVRV turned deeply negative after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin surged by about 67 percent over the following three months.

Analysts explained that such situations often occur when average returns fall significantly below the levels typically expected based on historical patterns.

At the same time, broader economic developments and divided opinions surrounding the aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy of Strategy are reshaping the cryptocurrency market. Analysts suggested that the current divergence in this indicator, the strongest seen in more than three years, could signal that a major move may be approaching.

A similar 67 percent rally from current prices would push Bitcoin toward 116000 dollars. However, this scenario appears unlikely in the present bear market conditions. Many analysts expect the market to go through several months of consolidation before any significant price movement.

Early Signs of Stabilization

In its latest on chain report, Glassnode expressed cautious optimism, noting that Bitcoin is beginning to show early signs of stabilization as inflows into exchange traded funds return and demand in the spot market improves.

Bitcoin has been trading within a range between 63000 dollars and 72500 dollars for more than a month. The asset has repeatedly failed to maintain levels above 70000 dollars. According to the report, the price is currently positioned between two important levels. The Realized Price around 54400 dollars is acting as support, while the True Market Mean near 78400 dollars is functioning as resistance.

Several indicators also point to gradual stabilization. These include positive inflows into United States spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing activity from spot buyers who are absorbing selling pressure, negative funding rates in perpetual futures, and declining implied volatility in the options market. Together these factors suggest that immediate market fear may be easing.

Analysts noted that the market appears to be transitioning from a period of forced deleveraging toward the early stages of stabilization. If spot demand continues to strengthen, the conditions for recovery could gradually develop.

Crypto Market Outlook

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization remained unchanged over the past day at around 2.45 trillion dollars.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above 71000 dollars during late United States trading before falling back to about 69400 dollars during the Asian session, repeating a pattern similar to the previous day.

Meanwhile, Ethereum prices have remained relatively stable slightly above 2000 dollars, while most altcoins continue to show little movement.

According to 10x Research, overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains weak, with trading volumes hovering close to recent lows. #crypto #cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Bitcoin once again failed to hold above 71,000 dollars during the latest bout of market volatility linked to developments in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency is now trading slightly below the 70,000 dollar level.

Among the top 100 alternative cryptocurrencies, Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Sky are currently the strongest performers.

Bitcoin Remains Below $70K

After being rejected near the monthly high of 74,000 dollars last Wednesday, Bitcoin began a sharp decline in the days that followed. The asset traded around 68,000 dollars during the weekend but fell further to about 65,600 dollars on Monday morning as traditional financial markets reopened.

Buyers stepped in after the drop and pushed the price higher. By Tuesday, Bitcoin had rebounded by more than 5,000 dollars and briefly approached the 72,000 dollar level.

The momentum did not last long. The asset slipped back to around 69,000 dollars on Wednesday. Inflation data from the United States later matched expectations, leaving Bitcoin relatively stable but still under the 70,000 dollar mark.

A few hours later, the price briefly climbed above both 70,000 and 71,000 dollars after comments from Donald Trump suggested that there was almost nothing left to strike in Iran. The rally quickly faded and Bitcoin dropped below 70,000 dollars again, where it currently trades.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization remains just under 1.4 trillion dollars according to CoinGecko. Its market dominance over alternative cryptocurrencies is still below 57 percent.

PI, HYPE, and SKY Record Gains

Most large capitalization altcoins have posted modest daily gains. Ethereum has managed to hold above the important 2,000 dollar support level.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been one of the top performers, rising more than eight percent to reach a local peak near 8.50 dollars. Other notable gainers include Bittensor and Sky.

Meanwhile, Pi Network has seen a boost after a major listing announcement from Kraken, which confirmed that trading for the token will begin on March 13. The token initially showed little reaction but later gained nearly five percent in a single day and briefly reached 0.24 dollars.

The asset has also recorded strong double digit gains over the past week and month.

Overall, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has remained relatively stable since yesterday and currently stands slightly above 2.45 trillion dollars, according to CoinGecko.#crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Tether has created another 1 billion dollars worth of USDT on the Tron network. This marks the first time in more than a month that the company has minted such a large amount of its stablecoin.

The new issuance increases the total circulating supply of USDT to roughly 183 billion dollars. This places it far ahead of its closest competitor, USD Coin, which has a significantly smaller supply.

According to Tether’s transparency data, more than 96 billion USDT currently circulate on the Ethereum network, while Tron holds about 86 billion, making it the second largest network supporting the stablecoin.

Large issuances like this do not typically cause immediate volatility in cryptocurrency markets. However, the move could signal that the company expects rising demand for USDT as global uncertainty continues.

Recent geopolitical developments have created notable pressure across financial markets. The conflict involving Iran has already affected global economic conditions. In the past week, crude oil prices surged by more than 30 percent in a single day and briefly moved above 120 dollars before dropping again after new announcements.

This sharp movement also influenced the price of Bitcoin, which experienced significant volatility during the same period.

Geopolitical tensions often impact cryptocurrency markets. While the creation of another 1 billion USDT may not immediately affect prices, the additional liquidity could help the broader market handle potential shocks during periods of heightened uncertainty.#crypto #cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

XRP struggled to move above the 1.40 dollar level on Wednesday despite earlier optimism this week about a possible easing of tensions involving Iran. At the same time, derivatives data indicates that speculative trading activity around the asset is beginning to decline.

Open interest in XRP derivatives has dropped significantly across major trading platforms after a period of strong speculation that followed the asset’s rise toward its cycle peak in July 2025.

Market Cooling After Long Liquidations

Recent multi exchange data shows that the total value of active futures contracts has fallen across nearly all major platforms, suggesting that traders are reducing leveraged positions. Open interest measures the number of active futures contracts in the market, and a decrease typically means traders are closing positions or lowering their exposure.

Despite the overall decline, Binance still accounts for the largest share of XRP derivatives activity, with open interest currently around 222 million dollars. Bybit follows with approximately 195 million dollars.

Although these figures remain higher than the lowest levels recorded in 2024, they are well below the peaks seen in mid 2025 when XRP reached its cycle high and speculative trading activity surged.

Research from CryptoQuant found that long liquidations have significantly outnumbered short liquidations across exchanges, both in terms of frequency and total value. This pattern indicates that bullish traders have been more heavily impacted by recent market volatility.

The analysis also noted that large waves of long liquidations often push funding rates lower and can bring them back to neutral levels or even into negative territory. These conditions usually signal weakening bullish sentiment and growing caution among derivatives traders.

Exchange Activity Declines

At the same time, transfers of XRP to and from major cryptocurrency exchanges have dropped to their lowest levels since the metric was first introduced. The data is based on the Multi Exchanges Daily Depositing and Withdrawing Transactions Delta indicator, which tracks deposit and withdrawal activity across 15 major trading platforms.

According to the analysis, this sharp decline in transaction activity followed a price drop of more than 60 percent from the highs recorded last summer. The reduced number of deposits and withdrawals suggests that fewer users are interacting with exchanges, indicating a noticeable slowdown in overall exchange related activity for the cryptocurrency.#crypto #cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net

Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, has been ranked ahead of Bill Gates on the 2026 billionaire ranking released by Forbes. However, Zhao says the figures used to estimate his wealth are inaccurate.

CZ Ranked Above Bill Gates

The latest Forbes billionaire list places Zhao in the 17th position among the world’s richest individuals, while Gates appears slightly behind in 19th place.

The annual list tracks the fortunes of prominent entrepreneurs, investors, heirs, and celebrities around the globe. According to the publication’s data as of March 11, 2026, Zhao’s estimated net worth stands at about 111.1 billion dollars, while Gates is listed with a fortune of approximately 105.7 billion dollars.

The report suggests that Zhao’s wealth has grown steadily over the past three years, largely due to his cryptocurrency holdings linked to Binance. In contrast, Gates’ wealth has remained relatively stable and is primarily tied to his shares in Microsoft along with his extensive philanthropic activities.

Zhao Disputes the Estimates

Zhao later responded on social media, arguing that the calculations used by Forbes are incorrect. He said that even a quick look at the chart in the report suggests the numbers do not make sense.

In his post on X, Zhao questioned how the publication determined his net worth, noting that cryptocurrency prices have fallen by more than 50 percent in 2026 while the report indicates his wealth has increased.

He also stated that the estimates appear far from accurate. As an example, he pointed to the valuation of ByteDance, which is estimated at about 150 billion dollars, compared with the reported 69 billion dollar net worth of its former chief executive.

Forbes explained that its 2026 ranking was calculated using stock prices and currency exchange rates recorded on March 1. The publication also considers the range of assets billionaires are believed to control, including stakes in public companies, private businesses, real estate holdings, art collections, and other investments.

How Forbes Calculated Their Wealth

For Zhao, most of his estimated fortune comes from his ownership stake in Binance. According to Forbes data, he is believed to still control about 90 percent of the cryptocurrency exchange, which represents a significant portion of his wealth based on the company’s valuation.

He is also thought to hold a substantial amount of BNB connected to the Binance ecosystem. Zhao has previously said that around 98.5 percent of his crypto portfolio consists of BNB, while about 1.3 percent is held in Bitcoin. The exact amounts have not been publicly disclosed.

The calculation of Gates’ wealth is different. Forbes said that his fortune was historically linked to his Microsoft stake. Over the years, however, his ownership has dropped to less than one percent after significant charitable donations and asset diversification.

Gates has contributed more than 59 billion dollars to the trust that supports the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in recent years. According to Forbes, these donations have reduced his total net worth and affected his position on the billionaire ranking.#crypto #cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net