CoinSignals

United States spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds added 21,000 BTC valued at roughly 1.45 billion dollars, marking the first significant accumulation phase since mid October 2025.

On February 25, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of their strongest inflow days in weeks, representing the first meaningful increase in holdings since mid October 2025. Analysts suggest the development comes as retail participation declines and many newer investors sit on substantial unrealized losses, signaling a potential shift in market structure.

Institutional Demand Rises as Retail Activity Slows

In a March 2 market update, analyst Amr Taha highlighted two important data trends that point to changing investor behavior. The first dataset measures 30 day cumulative Bitcoin inflows to Binance, separating smaller retail transactions from large whale transfers.

Between February 6 and March 2, retail inflows fell sharply from 14.1 billion dollars to 9.05 billion dollars, reflecting a contraction of around 5 billion dollars. Taha noted that similar pullbacks occurred twice in 2025. Retail inflows declined by approximately 8 billion dollars between March 5 and April 7, and by about 5 billion dollars from June 6 to June 22. In both instances, the slowdown preceded notable market moves.

The second dataset tracks the total Bitcoin held by all United States spot ETFs. On February 25, ETF balances rose meaningfully for the first time since mid October. Around 21,000 BTC entered these funds, equivalent to about 1.45 billion dollars at current prices. Taha described this as the first clear accumulation wave following months of limited activity.

He emphasized that historically, growing ETF demand has supported price strength, while declining demand has often coincided with weaker market performance.

However, alternative data from SoSoValue and FarSide indicates that net inflows on February 25 were slightly above 500 million dollars, significantly lower than Taha’s estimate. Even so, it still marked the strongest daily net inflow since mid January.

Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment

The broader market backdrop remains challenging. Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive monthly declines for the first time since 2018, finishing February with a drop of nearly 15 percent. The cryptocurrency currently trades just above 66,000 dollars, down more than 20 percent over the past month and sitting 47 percent below its October 2025 all time high.

Analyst Crypto Dan added perspective on investor psychology, noting that most buyers from the past two years are currently holding positions at a loss. He explained that steep corrections often follow periods when the majority of investors are in strong profit, while powerful rallies frequently begin after widespread losses.

Dan suggested that if Bitcoin falls below 60,000 dollars, pushing most investors other than long term holders into negative territory, it could create a strategic accumulation opportunity for disciplined buyers.

While retail traders appear to be stepping back, Taha’s data indicates that institutional investors may already be positioning themselves in anticipation of the next phase of the market cycle.

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that 472 million XRP, valued at approximately 652 million dollars, flowed into Binance following military strikes on Iran, increasing uncertainty across the crypto market.

Rising conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran over the weekend drove more than 472 million XRP onto Binance, marking the largest exchange inflow recorded in February. The substantial transfer of tokens to the exchange suggests that some investors may be preparing to sell, potentially putting downward pressure on XRP in the near term.

Geopolitical Turmoil Impacts XRP

Soon after traditional markets closed last Friday, the United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iran, resulting in the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the timing intensified uncertainty across risk sensitive assets, with cryptocurrencies reacting swiftly to the unfolding events.

Exchange data indicates that Binance received more than 472 million XRP during the past week, with the largest daily inflows occurring toward the end of February. Moving large quantities of tokens onto exchanges is often viewed as a signal that holders may be preparing to sell or seeking liquidity during volatile conditions. Darkfost explained that inflows of this scale can set the stage for sudden selling pressure, influencing short term price movements.

XRP experienced sharp price swings on Saturday, falling from 1.43 dollars to 1.27 dollars before rebounding after initial reports of Khamenei’s death surfaced. The token later recovered close to its previous level, highlighting how geopolitical developments are shaping short term trading behavior.

The surge in exchange inflows comes as XRP exchange traded funds show slowing momentum. Following a strong debut in November 2025 that drove cumulative net inflows above 1 billion dollars within a month, activity has cooled significantly. In the final full week of February, funds attracted only 9.55 million dollars, and total inflows over the past two months have reached just 240 million dollars.

XRP Maintains Key Support Level

At the time of writing, XRP was trading near 1.35 dollars, reflecting a 1.3 percent decline over the past 24 hours and a 1 percent drop over the past week, according to CoinGecko. During the recent volatility, the token touched a weekly low of 1.28 dollars and a high of 1.48 dollars, with the 1.30 dollar level acting as support during Saturday’s sell off.

Futures data from CoinGlass shows that XRP liquidations totaled 5.37 million dollars in the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 3.70 million dollars of that figure. Open interest currently stands at 2.14 billion dollars, while combined spot and futures trading volume reached approximately 5.2 billion dollars over the same period. The liquidation data indicates that leveraged long traders absorbed most of the impact from the weekend’s volatility.

Although the large inflows to Binance do not guarantee immediate selling, transfers of this magnitude can alter market dynamics even without a full scale sell off. It remains unclear whether this development signals the start of a broader distribution phase or simply reflects short term reactions to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin surged 5 percent in just one hour, climbing to $69,000 ahead of President Trump’s upcoming address on the situation in Iran. More than $80 million in short positions were liquidated within that single hour.

The cryptocurrency market has turned bullish once again. Bitcoin jumped several thousand dollars in under an hour, rising from just above $65,000 to a multi day high near $69,000.

Altcoins followed the momentum. Ethereum broke above the key $2,000 level, Solana approached $90, and both XRP and BNB posted gains of more than 4 percent within the hour.

Geopolitical tensions have intensified over the past two days. The United States and Israel carried out strikes against Iran on Saturday morning, reportedly resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Iran responded with actions targeting several countries in the region, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

Since then, tensions have continued to mount. President Trump has issued multiple warnings toward Iran and suggested that the conflict could last as long as four weeks.

The immediate catalyst for the latest surge in crypto prices appears to be Trump’s scheduled speech on the crisis, set to take place in a few hours. He also stated that although the United States has already used significant force in its operations against Iran, what he described as the big wave has yet to occur.

Market volatility has triggered another spike in liquidations, with more than $400 million wiped out over the past 24 hours. While long positions outpaced shorts on a daily basis, short traders suffered the most in the last hour, with $80 million liquidated compared to less than $5 million in longs.

After signaling another potential purchase on Sunday, Strategy co founder and former chief executive Michael Saylor confirmed that the company has acquired an additional 3,015 Bitcoin for approximately 204.1 million dollars.

The latest purchase was made at an average price of 67,700 dollars per BTC. With this addition, Strategy now holds 720,737 Bitcoin acquired at an average cost of just under 76,000 dollars. Given current market prices, the company remains significantly underwater on its overall position.

With Bitcoin trading near 66,000 dollars at the time of writing, the firm’s holdings are valued at about 47.5 billion dollars, reflecting an unrealized loss exceeding 7 billion dollars.

Many responses to Saylor’s announcement expressed strong support, with one commenter describing the acquisition during current macroeconomic uncertainty as a demonstration of conviction rather than hesitation.

Strategy shares have yet to begin regular trading following the weekend developments in the Middle East. In premarket activity, the stock is down roughly 0.5 percent, with further volatility expected once Wall Street opens.

Binance Coin has regained the fourth position by market capitalization after overtaking XRP once again.

Despite Asian and European markets opening earlier today, followed by US futures trading, Bitcoin has remained relatively steady near 66,000 dollars in the aftermath of weekend geopolitical developments.

Most alternative cryptocurrencies are also relatively subdued, although minor losses are more common. Ethereum continues to trade below the 2,000 dollar level.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Near 66,000 Dollars

After being rejected at 70,000 dollars last Wednesday, Bitcoin fell below 67,000 dollars the following day before finding support and entering the weekend around 68,000 dollars. Volatility surged on Saturday when the United States and Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran.

Iran responded with actions across parts of the region, including the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. During the escalation, Bitcoin dropped to a multi day low of 63,000 dollars. Later reports claiming that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed during the strikes triggered a sharp rebound, pushing BTC back toward 68,000 dollars.

The rally was short lived, with the price slipping to about 65,200 dollars on Sunday. Although heightened volatility was anticipated when futures and traditional markets reopened on Monday, Bitcoin has remained comparatively stable and is currently trading around 66,000 dollars.

Its market capitalization stands slightly above 1.320 trillion dollars, while its dominance over the broader crypto market remains above 56 percent.

BNB Regains the Fourth Spot

XRP was among the weaker performers during the initial escalation, allowing BNB to move ahead in market capitalization. The two assets swapped positions again yesterday, but BNB currently leads with a price near 617 dollars and a market capitalization of approximately 84.2 billion dollars, compared with XRP’s 82.5 billion dollars.

Most large cap altcoins are trading slightly lower. Ethereum has once again slipped under the 2,000 dollar mark. Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, HYPE, and Chainlink have declined by roughly 2 to 3 percent, while CC and Polkadot are down more than 4 percent on the day. In contrast, HTX has posted gains of over 3 percent.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by about 30 billion dollars over the past 24 hours and now stands near 2.35 trillion dollars.

Market observers say recent geopolitical shocks have not disrupted their broader outlooks for Bitcoin, even as volatility rises.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin showed a relatively muted response to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. While traditional markets reacted more sharply, BTC fluctuated between approximately 63,000 and 68,000 dollars before settling near 65,500 dollars on Monday. The moves followed reports of heightened conflict and claims that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US and Israeli airstrike.

Despite the dramatic backdrop, several analysts argue that the broader market structure remains intact.

Analysts Call It a High Risk Zone

In a post on X, market commentator Mr. Wall Street stated that the outbreak of war has not altered his outlook. He does not believe the cycle bottom has formed at 60,000 dollars. Instead, he expects Bitcoin to rally toward the 80,000 to 85,000 dollar range before eventually declining to around 45,000 dollars later this year.

His view reflects short term optimism combined with mid term caution. In his assessment, geopolitical shocks may create temporary volatility but do not invalidate expectations of a near term rally followed by a deeper correction.

Another well known analyst, Doctor Profit, also said the conflict has not changed his broader bearish stance. He described Bitcoin as remaining in a high risk zone and insisted that the market has not yet reached its bottom. He added that his major short position has been open since September and remains unchanged. Although the two analysts differ on near term direction, both agree that recent events have not fundamentally shifted their underlying theses.

Conflict May Already Be Reflected in Prices

Trader CrypNuevo suggested that markets had already been pricing in the possibility of US Iran escalation during the previous week. In this view, the downside may be limited because much of the uncertainty was anticipated.

However, questions remain about how long the conflict could last and whether disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz might occur. Since Bitcoin often mirrors stock futures, a negative open in US equities could weigh on BTC, though any signs of de escalation might quickly support a rebound.

CrypNuevo considers a prolonged conflict unlikely, noting that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely drive oil prices higher and push up US inflation, a scenario he does not expect. His approach is to observe the stock market reaction. A sharp selloff could present an opportunity to enter long positions around the 61,000 to 60,000 dollar range ahead of potential de escalation news. If the decline proves mild or markets stabilize, he would prefer to wait before taking a position later in the week.

Arthur Hayes believes that military conflicts in the Middle East have historically led to looser monetary policy in the United States, a trend he says could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

In a March 1 essay, the BitMEX co founder argued that the latest US military escalation involving Iran follows a pattern seen over the past four decades. In his view, prolonged engagement increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates or expand the money supply to help finance war related costs. Hayes contends that such monetary easing tends to support higher Bitcoin prices.

From Past Conflicts to Policy Shifts

Hayes referenced the 1990 Gulf War, noting that Federal Open Market Committee minutes from August of that year acknowledged how events in the Middle East complicated monetary policy decisions. Rate reductions followed later that year.

He also highlighted the Federal Reserve’s emergency response after the September 11 attacks in 2001, when then Chair Alan Greenspan lowered rates by 50 basis points, citing heightened fear and uncertainty affecting financial markets.

Recent geopolitical developments have already stirred crypto markets, which continue trading over weekends unlike traditional financial markets. After reports of strikes on February 28, Bitcoin dropped rapidly from about 66,000 dollars to roughly 63,600 dollars. It later rebounded to 67,000 dollars following reports of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near 66,800 dollars, down less than 1 percent on the day and up 2.8 percent over the past week. However, it remains more than 20 percent lower over the last month.

A Wait and See Approach

Hayes advises investors to focus less on short term volatility and more on the potential policy response from the Federal Reserve. He argues that every US president since the mid 1980s has engaged in military action in the Middle East, and the economic consequences have typically been addressed through looser monetary conditions.

In his view, the financial burden of extended foreign involvement often results in lower rates or increased money creation. The longer the current administration remains engaged, the higher the probability that the Fed will adjust policy to support broader objectives.

Given that Bitcoin has just recorded its fifth straight month of losses, including a decline of nearly 15 percent in February, Hayes recommends patience. He suggests that the more strategic opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and other strong digital assets may come after the Federal Reserve formally cuts rates or resumes large scale liquidity expansion, rather than during the early stages of conflict driven uncertainty.

A packed week awaits on the United States economic calendar as financial markets assess the consequences of the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Volatility is expected as US stock futures reopen and respond to the weekend escalation in the Middle East. Crypto markets were relatively steady on Sunday but began to edge lower early Monday.

President Donald Trump addressed the situation on Sunday, outlining details of what he called Operation Epic Fury. He stated that the United States would respond to American casualties, warned that further losses could occur, and said military actions would continue until objectives are met. He also claimed that Iran’s military leadership had been eliminated.

Market commentators at The Kobeissi Letter argued that current conditions do not signal a global war scenario. They pointed to oil prices, which have already trimmed much of their initial spike, along with only modest declines in US stock futures and renewed strength in gold. Their message to investors was to remain calm as markets adjust.

Key Economic Events From March 2 Through March 6

This week features several important labor market reports, which are closely monitored by the Federal Reserve when setting monetary policy.

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for February will offer insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. Employment related data begins on Wednesday with the February ADP Employment report. Thursday will bring the latest Initial Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, the February Jobs Report will be released, along with January Retail Sales data.

The upcoming jobs report follows stronger than expected employment gains in January, which suggested resilience in the labor market. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that around 60,000 jobs were added in February.

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, noted that while January’s report was encouraging, the broader labor market performance in 2025 has been relatively weak. The key question, she said, is how conditions will evolve in the coming months.

Crypto Market Outlook

Digital asset markets have turned lower again after a brief rebound on Sunday. Total market capitalization has slipped back to 2.35 trillion dollars, giving up weekend gains.

Bitcoin faced resistance near 67,000 dollars three times in the past 24 hours and has since pulled back to around 66,300 dollars during Monday morning trading in Asia. The asset has largely moved within a narrow range for the past three weeks.

Ethereum was unable to maintain levels above 2,000 dollars and has declined to roughly 1,950 dollars. Most major altcoins are also trading lower, with sharper declines seen in XRP, Solana, Cardano, Canton, and Stellar.

World Liberty Financial has introduced a proposal for a new governance model centered on staking through what it calls the WLFI Governance Staking System. The framework positions WLFI tokens as the core mechanism for community decision making, enabling holders to shape the ecosystem while encouraging sustained involvement.

Under the proposal, unstaked WLFI tokens will not carry voting rights. Participants who stake their tokens can earn rewards, gain Node related privileges, and potentially qualify for Super Node partnership opportunities.

Structured Governance and Incentives

According to the official announcement, the initiative seeks to shift value toward long term participants instead of intermediaries and market makers, who reportedly captured significant arbitrage profits during the USD1 expansion. It also aims to create competitive pressure within the stablecoin sector.

Holders of unlocked WLFI tokens must stake them to take part in governance. The minimum lockup period is 180 days. Voting power is calculated based on both the amount staked and the remaining duration of the lockup. Governance influence gradually adjusts as the lockup period shortens. To qualify for staking rewards, participants must vote at least twice during the lockup window. The targeted annual yield is approximately 2 percent, funded by the WLFI treasury.

The system establishes a Node tier for users who stake 10 million WLFI, valued at roughly 1 million dollars. Node participants gain access to over the counter USD1 conversions through licensed market makers, receive certain team building privileges, and earn rewards linked to USD1 conversion volume. WLFI plans to subsidize market makers to maintain one to one parity and redirect arbitrage gains to long term contributors.

A higher Super Node tier is available to those staking 50 million WLFI, or about 5 million dollars. Super Nodes receive all Node benefits, direct access to the WLFI team for partnership discussions, and possible eligibility for economic incentives tied to approved integrations. However, Super Node status does not automatically guarantee a partnership.

The rollout is expected to occur in three stages. The first phase will introduce governance staking for unlocked tokens along with rewards and USD1 incentives. The second phase will activate the Node tier, including know your customer onboarding and over the counter conversion access. The final phase will enable the Super Node tier, along with partnership channels and revenue sharing structures. Specific timelines will be announced after the governance vote concludes.

Pakistan Considers USD1 Integration

The proposal follows a recent memorandum of understanding between Pakistan and SC Financial Technologies, an affiliate of World Liberty Financial. The agreement focuses on exploring the potential use of the USD1 stablecoin and fostering technical collaboration on digital payment systems.

Under the arrangement, SC Financial Technologies will coordinate with Pakistan’s central bank to examine how USD1 could be incorporated into regulated digital payment frameworks and operate alongside the country’s emerging digital currency infrastructure.

Lighter stated that its upgraded liquidity pool framework successfully contained auto deleveraging losses within a preset limit during a major market event.

On February 26, the decentralized exchange Lighter announced that its revamped liquidity pool structure withstood a 50 million dollar ARC perpetual long squeeze attempt. Roughly 600 traders moved against a large long position, leading to an 8.2 million dollar loss for the whale involved. The incident marked the first significant stress test for Lighter’s newly introduced LLP Strategies, with liquidity provider losses capped at 75,000 dollars.

First Real Test for LLP Strategies

In a February 17 post on X, Lighter outlined updates to its LLP infrastructure. Liquidity was divided into distinct strategies tailored to different market segments, including real world assets. Risk management, liquidations, and auto deleveraging would now be handled at the strategy level instead of across the entire pool.

That structure faced its first major challenge on February 26. According to the platform, a trader had accumulated a sizable long position in ARC perpetual contracts over several days. Around 600 traders and market makers took the opposite side, driving open interest to 50 million dollars.

ARC perpetual trading was placed under Strategy 7, labeled as a higher risk strategy, with approximately 75,000 USDC allocated. This setup ensured that only that portion of liquidity could be affected in the event of auto deleveraging.

As ARC’s price declined around 6 p.m. Eastern Time on February 26, the large long position was initially liquidated through the order book for about 2 million dollars. Lighter indicated that the LLP was briefly in profit, but continued price weakness exhausted Strategy 7 and triggered another auto deleveraging event at 0.071123. Ultimately, the whale absorbed an 8.2 million dollar loss, LLP forfeited its capped 75,000 dollar allocation, and short position holders who maintained their trades ended up in profit.

ARC Price Volatility Intensifies

The unwinding left a clear mark on ARC’s price performance. Data from CoinGecko shows the token experienced a sharp overnight drop in the early hours of February 27, falling from approximately 0.031 dollars to 0.025 dollars before rebounding to 0.0348 dollars.

At the time of writing, ARC, the token powering the Ryzome agentic AI app store, was down more than 9 percent over 24 hours and nearly 59 percent over the past week. It has declined over 63 percent in the last two weeks and 42 percent in the past month. The token now trades about 95 percent below its January 2025 all time high of 0.62 dollars, with an annual decline close to 88 percent.

The extreme volatility aligns with comments from crypto analyst Simon Dedic, who observed that ARC had fallen roughly 80 percent overnight on trading volumes approaching 400 million dollars, nearly ten times its fully diluted valuation. He noted that prior to the decline, the token had significantly outperformed the broader market and suggested it may have been heavily manipulated.

These concerns mirror wider discussions about transparency and fairness in digital asset markets. Recently, Base co founder Jesse Pollak dismissed claims of behind the scenes price coordination, emphasizing that markets should remain free, open, and fair without intervention from project teams.