Bitcoin’s recent push above $97,000 on January 14—its highest level since November—has reignited debate over whether the asset’s long-standing market cycle is shifting. The move comes as a familiar historical price pattern shows signs of breaking down, prompting analysts to reassess what may lie ahead.
Breaking the Historical Pattern
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto pointed out that for more than ten years, Bitcoin followed a consistent yearly rhythm: three bullish years followed by one bearish year, closely aligned with the four-year halving cycle. Traditionally, the year after a halving delivered strong gains.
However, that structure appears to have changed. Instead of the expected Green–Green–Green–Red sequence, the 2023–2025 period printed Green–Green–Red, disrupting the historical pattern. Based on this deviation, Egrag assigns a 55% to 65% probability that 2026 closes in the green, viewing 2025’s pullback as a cooling phase rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.
This outlook depends on several conditions, including strong monthly closes above $105,000, holding key support around $90,000, and sustained momentum on higher timeframes. A bearish 2026, which Egrag estimates at 35% to 45%, would likely involve extended consolidation and wider trading ranges rather than a sharp sell-off.
Analysts Weigh In as Price Rebounds
The discussion mirrors comments from analyst PlanB, who cautioned against confusing the four-year cycle with the stock-to-flow model. While post-halving years have historically performed well, he acknowledged that 2025 broke that trend. PlanB noted that stock-to-flow reflects average prices across a cycle, not market tops or bottoms, adding that the current cycle’s average price near $90,000 is far above the previous cycle’s $34,000.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading just below $97,000, up roughly 2% on the day, nearly 8% for the week, and about 12% over the past month, according to CoinGecko. The rapid move from below $90,000 to near $98,000 saw BTC reclaim several former resistance levels.
Analysts are now watching the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 as a key technical zone, following bitcoin’s reclaim of the $95,000 level.
Holder Behavior Signals Caution
While long-term structure looks resilient, short-term holders appear more cautious. Analyst Darkfost reported that over 40,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges in a single day as prices rebounded, suggesting some traders are locking in gains after the late-2025 correction.
Meanwhile, bitcoin’s market dominance has climbed above 57%, with most major altcoins lagging, reinforcing BTC’s relative strength during the current recovery.
