Bitcoin’s recent price movement is drawing comparisons to earlier bull market cycles, particularly those seen in 2017 and 2020. The asset is currently testing a historically important support zone that has been linked to major rallies in the past.
Early Friday, Bitcoin briefly moved above 71,000 before recovering slightly from earlier weakness. This rebound came as global efforts focused on stabilizing oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and calming broader market uncertainty.
Amid these conditions, Bitcoin is approaching a long term support trendline that has influenced its price behavior since 2017.
A Key Support Zone
Data shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez shows that previous tests of this level have often been followed by significant upward moves. These included gains of 963 percent in 2017, 261 percent in 2018, 1,126 percent after the 2020 COVID 19 market crash, and 660 percent following the 2022 FTX collapse.
Bitcoin is now nearing this critical range between 60,000 and 56,000. Martinez noted that if this level holds, it could act as a strong foundation for the next major bull cycle rather than just a temporary rebound.
At the same time, the TD Sequential indicator has signaled a potential buying opportunity, suggesting that the recent downward trend may be losing strength and that a recovery could be forming.
Additional data highlights a notable divergence in the market. The number of large holders with at least 100 Bitcoin has increased to 753 over the past three months. During that same period, the overall market value of Bitcoin fell by 20 percent, indicating that major investors may be accumulating despite declining prices.
Signs of Weak Conviction
Despite these positive signals, the broader market structure suggests that the current move lacks strong confirmation. Bitcoin has moved past a major supply zone, entering an area with relatively low liquidity up to 82,000, which could allow for easier upward movement in the short term. However, this shift has not yet confirmed a larger structural breakout.
Currently, about 60 percent of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, which is below the roughly 75 percent typically seen during stronger bull markets. Short term holders are also taking profits at a rate of about 18.4 million dollars per hour, showing continued selling pressure.
Although demand in spot markets has improved, supported by renewed inflows into United States spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased exchange activity, derivatives data presents a more cautious picture. Open interest in CME futures remains low, and negative funding rates suggest that many traders are still holding short positions. This dynamic has partly supported recent price gains through short covering.
Meanwhile, options markets indicate declining volatility alongside growing interest in call options, pointing to a more balanced outlook. According to Glassnode, maintaining levels above 70,000 while absorbing ongoing selling pressure could support a move toward 78,000 and possibly 82,000. Further gains, however, will likely depend on stronger capital inflows and increased use of leverage.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
