Recent analysis shows a clear divide in Bitcoin’s on chain behavior. While some investors are exiting at a loss, a larger portion of holders is choosing to remain inactive. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted this contrast in his latest report.
Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss metric, which measures the difference between realized gains and losses across all UTXOs, has dropped deeply into negative territory. Losses nearly reached 2 billion dollars during January and February 2026, levels last seen during the 2022 to 2023 bear market.
Supply Shows Limited Movement
This shift follows a long stretch from October 2023 through the end of 2024 when the metric stayed positive during a strong rally that pushed Bitcoin from 30,000 to 125,000. Now, with prices stabilizing between 65,000 and 75,000, the dominance of realized losses suggests that weaker holders are capitulating. Historically, this type of behavior is linked to periods of market stress and reduced selling activity over time.
However, Adler Jr. noted that this alone does not signal a trend reversal. Another key indicator, the Supply Active 30 Day Change, has dropped below zero. This metric tracks the movement of recently active coins and its decline suggests that fewer coins are changing hands. In earlier bullish phases, strong price increases were typically supported by sharp rises in this metric above 12 percent.
The current drop indicates that more coins are becoming dormant, even as realized losses remain elevated. This suggests that selling pressure driven by losses may be nearing exhaustion, rather than signaling a clear return of strong demand.
Market Structure and Risks
The divergence shows that while some participants are exiting the market, a larger group continues to hold their positions. This pattern is often associated with accumulation or absorption phases. For confirmation of a recovery, there would need to be a consistent move of the Net Realized Profit and Loss metric back into positive territory, while supply activity remains relatively low.
A key risk would be a sudden increase in supply movement before profitability improves. That scenario could indicate renewed selling rather than a natural recovery in demand.
For now, the market appears to be in a neutral phase, with signs pointing more toward reduced selling pressure than the start of a strong bullish trend.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.nethttps://t.me/coinsignalpublic
