A new market forecast suggests Bitcoin could decline further before reaching its cycle bottom, with projected lows between $42,000 and $44,000 later this year.
Jiang Zhuoer, co founder of mining pool BTC.TOP, shared the long term outlook on June 25, predicting Bitcoin may find its bottom between October and December 2026.
At the time of the forecast, Bitcoin was trading around $62,000, roughly 51% below its all time high of more than $126,000 reached in October 2025.
Strategy Metrics Flash Warning Signals
Jiang’s outlook is largely based on valuation metrics tied to Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy.
He focused on Strategy’s mNAV ratio, a metric that compares the company’s stock price with the value of its Bitcoin holdings per share. An mNAV above 1 typically signals investors are paying a premium, while a reading below 1 often reflects growing pessimism.
According to Jiang, Strategy’s mNAV has dropped to 0.72, close to the 0.70 level seen in May 2022 during the previous bear market.
He believes this may indicate sentiment among Strategy investors is approaching extreme lows, though that does not necessarily mean Bitcoin itself has reached bottom.
In the 2022 cycle, Strategy’s mNAV bottomed in May while Bitcoin traded near $31,000. About six months later, Bitcoin reached its cycle low around $15,000.
If the same pattern repeats, Jiang expects Bitcoin’s next major bottom to occur in the fourth quarter of 2026, potentially falling to the $42,000 to $44,000 range.
His analysis also draws from a four year market cycle model that compares Bitcoin’s long term price movement to a bouncing ball. Under this theory, each cycle produces smaller swings as Bitcoin’s total market capitalization grows and volatility gradually declines.
Rising Pressure Across the Market
Strategy stock has recently dropped to its lowest level since February 2024, trading just above $94.
Meanwhile, the company’s preferred STRC shares have fallen below their $100 par value, trading at around $80.84. Jiang believes this weakness is adding further pressure to market sentiment.
Some analysts have also suggested continued stress in Strategy’s stock could eventually force the company to liquidate part of its Bitcoin holdings.
Broader Market Conditions Remain Weak
Bitcoin’s recent weakness is also visible across broader market data.
Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold 45,074 coins over an eight day period. This selling pressure helped push Bitcoin below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024.
Data from CoinGlass showed nearly $416 million in Bitcoin liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for more than $319 million.
Market analyst Wise Crypto described the selloff as a major leverage flush, affecting more than 175,000 traders when Bitcoin briefly dropped to $59,000.
Although Bitcoin has since recovered somewhat and is trading near $62,000, it remains down roughly 4% over the past week and nearly 20% over the last month.
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez noted that the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for 46 consecutive days.
This metric tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges. A negative reading generally signals weaker buying demand from US investors and institutions, adding to concerns about near term market weakness.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
