Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of a historical bear market cycle, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, although analysts caution that macroeconomic conditions will ultimately determine whether a sustained recovery takes hold.
Historically, Bitcoin has spent five to six months trading below the Short Term Holder Realized Price, a period often associated with prolonged market weakness. Bitfinex noted that the fifth and sixth months have typically marked the closing stage of that cycle before a broader recovery begins.
With July representing the fifth month of the current downturn, analysts believe Bitcoin could be approaching an important turning point.
Recovery Depends on More Than Historical Trends
While seasonal patterns have historically favored Bitcoin in July, Bitfinex warned that favorable timing alone is unlikely to trigger a lasting rally.
The firm said macroeconomic developments, particularly the June US Consumer Price Index report and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, remain the biggest variables influencing market direction.
According to the analysts, Bitcoin’s recovery will require both supportive macroeconomic conditions and renewed demand rather than relying solely on historical cycle behavior.
Bitcoin Shows Resilience Despite Heavy Selling Pressure
Throughout July, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience despite facing several major headwinds.
The cryptocurrency absorbed record corporate selling, including Strategy’s largest Bitcoin sale to date, while navigating uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and escalating geopolitical risks.
Despite those challenges, BTC has largely maintained a trading range between $61,300 and $64,700, suggesting buyers have continued to defend key support levels.
Institutional sentiment also showed early signs of improvement after US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds ended a nine week streak of net outflows, recording approximately $197.4 million in net inflows for the first time in more than two months.
ETF Trends Remain a Key Indicator
Bitfinex believes the pattern of ETF flows may be more important than the headline figures themselves.
According to the report, most inflows occurred during relatively calm trading sessions and slowed whenever geopolitical tensions intensified, indicating that institutional demand has yet to establish a consistent foundation.
The firm identified the 30 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of ETF net flows as one of the most important indicators to monitor.
That metric currently continues to reflect a broader trend of net outflows, with daily ETF redemptions recently totaling $88.9 million.
Whether the SMA begins to reverse in the weeks ahead may depend on whether Bitcoin’s historically strong July performance can outweigh persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
For now, analysts believe Bitcoin is approaching a historically favorable point in its market cycle, but a lasting recovery will likely require stronger institutional demand and a more supportive macroeconomic backdrop.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
