Bitcoin has rebounded from its recent lows, but some analysts believe the current market cycle still leaves room for another decline before a lasting bottom is established.
While BTC has recovered toward the $65,000 level this week, historical cycle analysis suggests the correction may not be over, with some forecasts pointing to the possibility of prices revisiting the $38,000 to $39,000 range later this year.
Historical Cycles Point to Potential Lower Low
Bitcoin’s performance in 2026 has renewed attention on its traditional four year market cycle, with the current correction showing similarities to the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022.
The cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 50% from its all time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. Earlier this month, BTC dropped to a cycle low of $57,700 before staging a modest recovery.
According to NYDIG, previous bear markets lasted 363 and 376 days before reaching their respective bottoms, with peak to trough declines of 84.3% and 77.6%.
If the current cycle follows a similar timeline but experiences a milder 70% drawdown, the firm estimates Bitcoin could bottom somewhere between $38,000 and $39,000 around early October.
NYDIG emphasized that this is a possible scenario rather than its primary forecast, but noted that the comparison highlights how the four year cycle continues to offer a useful framework for evaluating the current market.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has expressed a similar view, previously forecasting a final bottom between $40,000 and $48,000 during September or October 2026.
Despite Bitcoin gaining roughly 3% this week and trading just below $65,000, some analysts remain unconvinced that the worst of the correction is over.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson argued that the recent wave of optimism across social media following Bitcoin’s rebound suggests the market has not yet reached the level of pessimism typically associated with a major bottom.
Long Term Investors Should Avoid Chasing the Bottom
Not every analyst believes identifying the exact bottom is the right strategy.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez advised investors against becoming overly focused on perfect market timing. He noted that over the past decade, periods when Bitcoin traded near its 200 week moving average have consistently provided attractive long term buying opportunities, even if very few investors managed to purchase at the absolute lowest price.
Martinez also pointed out that as Bitcoin matures and its returns become less explosive, investors now need larger amounts of capital to generate the same gains from simply holding the asset.
Even so, he believes Bitcoin’s current price range continues to offer a compelling opportunity for long term accumulation rather than waiting for the perfect entry point.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
