Ethereum’s latest technical structure has historically signaled the end of distribution phases, while large investors continue accumulating millions of dollars worth of ETH.
Ethereum has gained around 16% over the past month, and crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes the asset is approaching a technical milestone that has previously preceded significant price recoveries.
According to Martinez, Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is close to crossing above its 160 day simple moving average, a signal that has historically aligned with bullish market reversals.
Bullish Signals Continue to Build
The MVRV Momentum indicator tracks the relationship between investors’ unrealized profits and its medium term trend. Martinez explained that when the daily MVRV ratio rises above the 160 day moving average, it typically signals the end of capitulation and the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
This is the first time the indicator has approached such a crossover in 2026. Over the past three years, similar signals have consistently marked the conclusion of distribution periods before Ethereum entered strong recovery phases.
Meanwhile, whale activity continues to reinforce the optimistic outlook. Blockchain tracking platform Lookonchain reported that an anonymous investor acquired 27,000 ETH worth approximately $52.03 million through Galaxy Digital’s over the counter trading desk after remaining inactive for three months.
BitMEX co founder Arthur Hayes has also expanded his Ethereum holdings. According to BSCN, Hayes recently purchased an additional 644.34 ETH valued at roughly $1.25 million, bringing his total acquisitions over the past eight days to 3,270 ETH. The latest purchase follows an earlier $2.53 million Ethereum buy and comes alongside several other multimillion dollar ETH purchases and staking transactions reported this week.
Prediction markets also remain optimistic. Whale Insiders reported that traders on Kalshi expect Ethereum could climb to as high as $3,210 before the end of the year.
On chain data further supports the bullish case. Approximately one million ETH, valued at nearly $2 billion, has been withdrawn from centralized exchanges over the past month, reducing exchange balances to their lowest level in ten years. Lower exchange reserves are generally viewed as a positive sign because they reduce immediate selling pressure.
Institutional demand has also remained strong, with spot Ethereum exchange traded funds attracting more than $380 million in net inflows so far this month.
Not Every Analyst Expects an Immediate Breakout
Despite the growing number of bullish signals, some analysts remain cautious in the short term.
Crypto analyst Nonzee believes Ethereum may still stage one more rally before experiencing a larger correction. He expects ETH to retest $2,000, with a possible extension toward $2,200 if Bitcoin reaches $70,000. However, he views that move as a potential bull trap rather than the beginning of a sustained breakout.
Based on his market roadmap, Ethereum could spend between seven and ten days in a distribution phase before declining into a final bottoming range between $1,300 and $900, which he considers an attractive long term accumulation zone.
Even with his cautious near term outlook, Nonzee continues to project that Ethereum could eventually reach $7,000 over the longer term.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
