Grayscale believes Bitcoin may have already found its cycle low, arguing that macroeconomic conditions have become more influential than the traditional four year cycle.
The debate over Bitcoin’s current market phase remains divided between those who believe the cryptocurrency still follows its historical four year cycle and those who argue that the market has evolved beyond that framework.
Grayscale is among the firms supporting the latter view.
Macroeconomic Factors Take Center Stage
Supporters of the four year cycle theory argue that Bitcoin’s halving events continue to dictate long term price movements. Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically bottomed about one year after reaching a market peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving, with average drawdowns of around 80%.
Using that historical pattern, some analysts believe Bitcoin could still fall further before finding its bottom in September or October.
Grayscale, however, argues that Bitcoin has matured into an asset class that increasingly responds to broader macroeconomic conditions rather than relying solely on its historical cycle.
The asset manager noted that previous bear markets coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates. It also pointed out that this year’s downturn has unfolded alongside changing expectations surrounding US Federal Reserve policy and persistently higher real yields.
According to Grayscale, Bitcoin could establish its market bottom once macroeconomic conditions begin to improve. The firm added that if the Federal Reserve avoids additional interest rate hikes while economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin may have already completed its decline, eliminating the need for another major leg lower despite what the traditional four year cycle would suggest.
More Analysts See Signs the Bottom Is Already In
Grayscale is not alone in questioning whether Bitcoin has already reached its lowest point.
Crypto trader Killa said Bitcoin’s current market structure suggests the bottom may already be in place, although he remains evenly split because the timing does not perfectly match previous cycles.
According to the trader, Bitcoin has already swept the previous low and completed the same five wave corrective structure observed during earlier bear markets. He acknowledged, however, that prior cycles typically lasted around 365 days before reaching their final bottom, while the current correction would have concluded in roughly 260 days.
Even so, Killa argued that assuming every market cycle must follow the same timeline is a mistake. Instead, he believes Bitcoin is more likely to continue forming higher lows than to set significantly lower ones.
Earlier this week, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin’s monthly chart is displaying the same combination of technical signals that appeared near the end of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. Although Martinez noted that on chain indicators such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward the $40,000 to $50,000 range, he said the current setup has historically marked a favorable accumulation zone with an attractive risk to reward profile for long term investors.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit echoed a similar view, warning that traders waiting for a textbook four year cycle bottom in September or October could miss the next major market move. While he acknowledged that Bitcoin could revisit the $54,000 area, he does not expect the asset to fall below $50,000 and believes the current price range already presents a compelling opportunity for gradual accumulation.#crypto#cryptonewshttps://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
