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SUI is among today’s worst-performing cryptocurrencies.

After an unusually volatile weekend marked by escalating geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline early Monday, falling by several thousand dollars to just below $92,000.

Major altcoins followed Bitcoin’s lead, suffering even steeper losses. Ethereum slipped to around $3,200, XRP dropped below the $2.00 mark, while Monero (XMR) and Internet Computer (ICP) stood out by posting notable gains despite the broader downturn.

Bitcoin Falls Below $92K

Bitcoin surged at the start of last week, reaching a multi-month peak near $98,000 on Wednesday. However, strong selling pressure at that level halted its advance. Still, BTC managed to stay above $95,000 for most of the following days.

The weekend saw limited price action, which was surprising given rising tensions surrounding US–EU trade relations. Events escalated after EU nations reportedly deployed troops to Greenland following former President Trump’s claims that the US should acquire the territory for national security reasons. In response, Trump announced new 10% tariffs, prompting the EU to schedule an emergency meeting, while French President Emmanuel Macron called for the use of a so-called “trade bazooka” against the US.

Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin initially remained stable. That changed on Monday morning when Asian markets and futures trading opened, triggering a sharp sell-off. BTC plunged more than $3,000, reaching a six-day low just under $92,000.

Although it has since rebounded by roughly $1,000, Bitcoin remains down over 2% on the day. Its market capitalization has fallen below $1.86 trillion, while its dominance over altcoins has risen to 57.5%, according to CoinGecko.

Altcoins Under Pressure

Ethereum failed to break past $3,350 and is now struggling to hold above $3,200. XRP slipped below $2.00 and briefly touched $1.84 earlier in the day. Other major altcoins—including DOGE, SOL, ADA, LINK, XLM, ZEC, AVAX, and HYPE—have posted notable losses.

The steepest declines were seen in ASTER, SUI, APT, ONDO, ARB, PEPE, and ENA, all of which fell by double-digit percentages. XMR and ICP remain among the few assets trading higher.

Overall, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen by more than $100 billion over the past 24 hours, dropping to approximately $3.22 trillion.

Bitcoin’s recent push above $97,000 on January 14—its highest level since November—has reignited debate over whether the asset’s long-standing market cycle is shifting. The move comes as a familiar historical price pattern shows signs of breaking down, prompting analysts to reassess what may lie ahead.

Breaking the Historical Pattern

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto pointed out that for more than ten years, Bitcoin followed a consistent yearly rhythm: three bullish years followed by one bearish year, closely aligned with the four-year halving cycle. Traditionally, the year after a halving delivered strong gains.

However, that structure appears to have changed. Instead of the expected Green–Green–Green–Red sequence, the 2023–2025 period printed Green–Green–Red, disrupting the historical pattern. Based on this deviation, Egrag assigns a 55% to 65% probability that 2026 closes in the green, viewing 2025’s pullback as a cooling phase rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

This outlook depends on several conditions, including strong monthly closes above $105,000, holding key support around $90,000, and sustained momentum on higher timeframes. A bearish 2026, which Egrag estimates at 35% to 45%, would likely involve extended consolidation and wider trading ranges rather than a sharp sell-off.

Analysts Weigh In as Price Rebounds

The discussion mirrors comments from analyst PlanB, who cautioned against confusing the four-year cycle with the stock-to-flow model. While post-halving years have historically performed well, he acknowledged that 2025 broke that trend. PlanB noted that stock-to-flow reflects average prices across a cycle, not market tops or bottoms, adding that the current cycle’s average price near $90,000 is far above the previous cycle’s $34,000.

At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading just below $97,000, up roughly 2% on the day, nearly 8% for the week, and about 12% over the past month, according to CoinGecko. The rapid move from below $90,000 to near $98,000 saw BTC reclaim several former resistance levels.

Analysts are now watching the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 as a key technical zone, following bitcoin’s reclaim of the $95,000 level.

Holder Behavior Signals Caution

While long-term structure looks resilient, short-term holders appear more cautious. Analyst Darkfost reported that over 40,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges in a single day as prices rebounded, suggesting some traders are locking in gains after the late-2025 correction.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s market dominance has climbed above 57%, with most major altcoins lagging, reinforcing BTC’s relative strength during the current recovery.

Sentiment in the crypto derivatives market is improving as bitcoin rallies to its highest level in two months, according to a joint analysis from Bybit and Block Scholes. Bybit’s Risk-Appetite Index has moved higher, indicating that traders are increasingly opening perpetual futures positions in anticipation of further upside in spot prices.

The report notes that bitcoin’s recovery into the upper $90,000 range has been accompanied by rising funding rates and growing open interest, signaling renewed confidence among derivatives traders. BTC’s breakout aligned with higher perpetual futures activity across several altcoins, while futures term structures have begun clustering at similar levels. At the same time, short-dated options have shifted toward a more neutral volatility skew.

Open Interest and Risk Appetite Increase

Prior to the rally, bitcoin had been trading within an $85,000–$95,000 range. The move toward $97,000 pushed total open interest above $8 billion across nine major cryptocurrencies. As BTC climbed, altcoins followed, with open interest returning to levels last seen earlier this year when bitcoin surged to $94,000.

The rise in derivatives activity has been reinforced by steady inflows into altcoin spot ETFs. Funds tied to ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP have recorded several consecutive days of inflows over the past week, supporting broader market momentum.

In the options market, bitcoin’s breakout had limited impact on at-the-money volatility. While realized volatility briefly increased late last week, short-term implied volatility has remained relatively low, averaging around 22% over the past year. Analysts say this is consistent with BTC’s largely range-bound price action over the last month.

Can the Shift in Sentiment Last?

Despite lingering caution, current derivatives conditions suggest support for a continuation of bitcoin’s rally. Demand for leveraged exposure remains strong, with short-dated options volatility smiles shifting from bearish positioning toward neutral levels. Additionally, seven-day futures contracts are trading at a 10% premium to spot prices, reflecting positive near-term expectations.

However, analysts warn that bitcoin consolidating near $95,000 may not be enough to fully cement the move from bearish to neutral sentiment. While call-side dominance has yet to clearly emerge in short-dated options, historical trends indicate that a failure to hold above $95,000 could quickly revive demand for downside protection and restore a put-heavy skew.

Base emerged as the clear leader among Ethereum layer-2 networks on January 14, generating approximately $147,000 in daily fees, according to data from CryptoRank.io. This put it far ahead of rivals such as Arbitrum, which recorded around $39,000, and Starknet, with roughly $9,000.

The figures highlight a growing concentration of user activity on a single network, as the majority of Ethereum scaling solutions failed to exceed $5,000 in fees during the same 24-hour period.

Fee Data Shows Base Pulling Further Ahead

CryptoRank reported that Base accounted for nearly 70% of total Ethereum L2 fee revenue in its January 14 snapshot. In comparison, all other layer-2 networks combined generated just over $15,000. Linea brought in about $4,500, Optimism $2,400, Unichain $2,000, Ink $1,500, zkSync $900, and Scroll around $600, underscoring how limited fee generation remains outside the leading network.

The numbers quickly sparked debate online, particularly after observers pointed out that Polygon posted significantly higher revenue on the same day. Crypto analyst Vadim and X user New York Pascal cited DefiLlama data showing Polygon earning roughly $155,000 in daily fees, narrowly surpassing Base.

This comparison reignited discussion around Polygon’s classification. Some community members, including X user Thorex, questioned whether Polygon should even be considered an Ethereum L2, given its combination of a proof-of-stake chain and newer zero-knowledge scaling solutions.

The distinction is important, as CryptoRank’s analysis focused solely on Ethereum layer-2 networks, while Polygon’s reported revenue often reflects activity across its broader ecosystem.

DefiLlama’s wider revenue rankings placed Tron at the top with more than $1 million in daily fees, followed by Polygon, Base, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, and Arbitrum. Even within this broader view, Base remained one of the strongest performers among Ethereum-aligned networks.

Expanding Ecosystem Supports Base’s Momentum

Base’s strong fee performance coincides with Coinbase’s ongoing expansion of products built on the network. Late last year, the exchange introduced a tokenized “everything app,” a redesigned version of Coinbase Wallet that combines social features, trading, and payments into a single platform.

Now available in over 140 countries, the app runs on Base and allows users to trade tokenized posts and assets directly from a social-style feed. It also enables on-chain interactions such as earning from content engagement and receiving rewards instantly in users’ wallets.

Although Coinbase has not directly linked the app to Base’s daily fee growth, its rollout helps explain why Base continues to attract significantly more activity than many other L2 networks without a comparable consumer-focused ecosystem.

Bitcoin’s demand indicators have shown modest improvement in recent days, but overall conditions remain weak despite the asset’s latest price rebound.

Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a recovery, pushing prices closer to several key technical levels. However, analysts at crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant caution that the broader market remains under bearish control, suggesting the recent move may be nothing more than a temporary rally.

In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant noted that while BTC demand has ticked up slightly, the improvement is minimal and insufficient to signal a meaningful shift in market structure. This supports the view that the market is still in a bearish phase, even with Bitcoin’s recent gains.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of a Bear Market Rally

Since November 21, 2025, BTC has climbed roughly 20% from its lows. This rebound followed a sharp 19% drop that confirmed the onset of a bear market when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average (MA). The recent price surge has brought BTC back toward that key level, which currently sits near $101,000.

Historically, the 365-day MA has served as a critical boundary between bull and bear markets. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above this level during bear markets before resuming its downward trend. A similar pattern played out during the 2022 bear market, and analysts suggest the current setup looks no different.

The recent price rally has occurred alongside marginally improved but still weak demand conditions. Spot demand continues to contract, even though some U.S.-based indicators briefly turned positive. Metrics such as the Coinbase Price Premium and flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs showed short-lived improvements, with the Coinbase premium moving out of deeply negative territory for the second time since mid-December 2025.

Demand Still Under Pressure

Despite the short-term bounce, spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown no signs of strong accumulation. Instead, they merely paused net selling during the rally after liquidating approximately 54,000 BTC over a 30-day period in November 2025. Overall ETF activity does not yet point to a meaningful resurgence in U.S. investor demand.

On-chain data further reinforces this cautious outlook. Apparent Bitcoin demand has declined by around 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days and has remained negative since November 28, 2025. So far this year, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated just 3,800 BTC only slightly more than the 3,600 BTC recorded at the same point last year and well below levels typically seen during early bull-market recoveries.

Adding to the downside risk, analysts warn that selling pressure may intensify in the coming weeks. Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have increased following the rally, with transfers averaging 39,000 BTC over the past seven days. Historically, rising exchange inflows often precede heightened selling activity, suggesting further headwinds could lie ahead for BTC.

Analysts say the escalating tariff conflict between the United States and the European Union has now reached phase four out of ten.

Following the deployment of troops by several EU nations to the latest geopolitical flashpoint Greenland,the U.S. president announced sweeping tariffs on those countries. The measures, set to take effect on February 1, will remain in place unless an agreement is reached for the full acquisition of the island.

The reaction was swift. EU officials moved immediately, while U.S. Democrats began pushing legislation aimed at stopping the proposed tariffs. Despite the heightened tensions and political drama, Bitcoin has shown little reaction, maintaining price stability even as it remains the only major financial asset trading through the turbulent weekend.

Latest Updates

As reported previously, the new tariffs will apply to imports from Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1. The initial tariff rate will be 10% on all goods entering the U.S., rising to 25% if no agreement is reached by June 1, according to the president.

Soon after the announcement, reports indicated that the EU is considering suspending approval of its trade agreement with the U.S. in response to the threats. European lawmakers also scheduled an emergency meeting for today to address the situation.

Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter, who claim to have spent a year studying Trump’s tariff strategy, described the current stage as the fourth step in a broader trade war. They expect global markets to open lower on Sunday evening and Monday, noting that the administration is likely to continue taking an aggressive stance.

Unlike the recent U.S China trade disputes, the analysts emphasized that the Greenland issue is more complex and likely to drag on, as such an acquisition “cannot happen overnight” and faces strong opposition from the EU.

Meanwhile, Democrats in the U.S. have reportedly begun preparing legislation designed to block the president’s proposed tariffs on European countries.

Bitcoin Remains Unmoved

Previous trade conflicts have weighed heavily on Bitcoin, most notably during the April 2025 escalation, when BTC plunged from $110,000 to $75,000.

Since then, however, the cryptocurrency has shown greater resilience. That trend appears to be continuing, at least for now. Despite being the only major market operating around the clock during this volatile weekend, Bitcoin has remained steady at just above $95,000.

That said, analysts warn that increased volatility could emerge later today as new developments surface, the EU holds its emergency meeting, and futures markets reopen.

What developments took place in the spot XRP ETF market last week, and how did XRP’s price perform during that period?

January 7 marked a notable turning point for crypto-focused ETFs on Wall Street, as spot XRP products recorded their first daily outflow in nearly two months. That brief setback, however, proved short-lived, with inflows quickly returning and optimism regaining momentum.

This report breaks down last week’s ETF activity and examines how XRP’s price responded.

XRP ETFs Return to Positive Territory

As previously reported, spot XRP ETFs experienced over $40 million in outflows on January 7, coinciding with XRP briefly surpassing $2.40 for the first time in months. Despite that interruption, sentiment reversed before the week’s close, allowing the funds to finish with net inflows totaling $38.07 million.

Buying pressure remained dominant throughout the following trading week. The funds attracted $15.04 million on Monday, $12.98 million on Tuesday, $10.63 million on Wednesday, $17.06 million on Thursday, and $1.12 million on Friday, according to SoSoValue data. In total, the all-green week delivered net inflows of $56.84 million.

Canary Capital’s XRPC continues to lead the pack, although its advantage has narrowed. Cumulative inflows into XRPC now stand at $397.04 million, while Bitwise’s XRP ETF has reached $310.48 million. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ follows with $288.08 million, closely trailed by Grayscale’s GXRP at $287.18 million. Meanwhile, 21Shares’ TOXR remains the only XRP ETF posting net outflows, totaling $7.77 million.

XRP Price Struggles to Gain Momentum

Despite consistent ETF inflows and strong institutional demand, XRP’s price has not followed suit. The token is down approximately 1% since last Saturday and is trading below $2.10 at the time of writing. It has also slipped to fifth place by market capitalization, overtaken by BNB, which posted weekly gains exceeding 4%.

Even so, market analysts remain optimistic, suggesting that XRP’s current consolidation phase may precede a stronger move higher. Some have even floated aggressive short-term price targets as high as $10, though such projections appear disconnected from both AI-based modeling and broader market fundamentals.

On a more encouraging note, whale activity has turned positive again. Large holders accumulated over 50 million XRP in the past week, reversing a prolonged selling trend that began in October, during which billions of tokens were offloaded.

Bitcoin has remained largely unmoved so far.

Tensions surrounding Greenland are escalating after several European Union countries deployed military forces to the island under what they described as reconnaissance missions. In response, US President Donald Trump who has repeatedly argued that Greenland must fall under US control announced a new round of tariffs targeting the nations involved.

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said the measures will apply to Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. Beginning February 1, 2026, all goods imported from these countries into the US will face a 10% tariff. If no agreement is reached by June 1 regarding Greenland’s acquisition, the rate will rise to 25%.

Trump clarified that any deal would require the “full and complete purchase of Greenland,” framing the move as critical to US national security.

Meanwhile, analysts at The Kobeissi Letter warned on X that the tariffs could impact roughly $1.2 trillion in annual trade between the US and the EU. They also estimated that acquiring Greenland could cost the US close to $700 billion. According to the firm, the trade conflict already underway since Trump’s return to office last year has now intensified significantly, with Greenland emerging as a key strategic priority.

Market participants are watching closely, as bitcoin was among the hardest-hit assets during Trump’s initial tariff rollout last year, when BTC plunged from its then-record high of $110,000 to below $75,000 within months.

For now, however, Trump’s latest announcement has had little effect on crypto markets. Bitcoin is trading just above $95,000, showing minimal price movement over the past 24 hours.

Iran’s cryptocurrency activity climbed past $7.78 billion in 2025, growing at a faster pace than in 2024, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

The expansion unfolded amid mounting political, economic, and security challenges, including strict international sanctions, soaring inflation, widespread protests, and escalating regional tensions.

Conflict and Instability Fuel Crypto Surges

Chainalysis found that crypto usage in Iran increasingly spikes around major political and geopolitical shocks. Transaction volumes jumped following several high-profile events, including the January 2024 Kerman bombings, Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in October 2024 after the killings of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, and a noticeable surge during the 12-day escalation with Israel in June 2025.

That June conflict coincided with US-Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, cyberattacks on Nobitex Iran’s largest crypto exchange and Bank Sepah, as well as hacks targeting Iranian state television broadcasts.

Overall, Chainalysis noted that Iran’s crypto economy not only expanded year over year but did so at an accelerated rate, reflecting crypto’s growing role as a financial alternative amid severe economic strain. Inflation has hovered between 40% and 50%, while the rial has lost roughly 90% of its value since 2018.

IRGC’s Expanding Role

One of the report’s key findings was the increasing influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) within Iran’s crypto ecosystem. Wallets linked to IRGC-affiliated networks accounted for more than half of the total value received across Iran’s crypto market in Q4 2025. Funds flowing to these addresses exceeded $2 billion in 2024 and rose above $3 billion in 2025.

Chainalysis cautioned that these figures likely underestimate the true scale, as they are based only on wallets publicly identified through US and Israeli sanctions. The firm noted that the IRGC likely operates through additional shell companies, undisclosed intermediaries, and unidentified wallets tied to sanctions evasion, illicit oil sales, money laundering, and support for regional proxy groups.

The report also highlighted shifts in behavior among ordinary Iranians during recent mass protests, particularly from late December 2025 to early January 2026, when authorities imposed an internet blackout. During this period, on-chain data showed higher average transaction sizes, increased transfers to self custody wallets, and a sharp rise in withdrawals from local exchanges to personal Bitcoin wallets signaling a turn to crypto as a tool for capital protection amid political and economic uncertainty.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT disclosed on Friday that a victim was drained of more than $282 million in BTC and LTC after falling for a sophisticated social engineering attack targeting a hardware wallet.

According to the report, the stolen assets were ultimately converted into Monero (XMR), a move that likely contributed to the sharp rally in the privacy coin that began last week. ZachXBT noted that a significant portion of the stolen bitcoin was routed through THORChain, where it was bridged across multiple networks, including Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin, before being swapped into XMR.

The incident sparked backlash within the crypto community after users highlighted THORChain’s posts on X, accusing its social media team of appearing to boast about facilitating illicit transactions. Others used the case to highlight the growing threat of social engineering scams, which can compromise even hardware wallet users. These schemes often involve fake profiles frequently posing as romantic interests to manipulate victims into granting access to their funds.

At the time of the theft, Monero was trading near $450. In the days that followed, XMR surged to a series of new all-time highs, peaking close to $800 on January 15. Since then, the token has pulled back sharply possibly as the attackers began cashing out and is now trading below $630.